Charting the Upset Possibilities in the Sweet Sixteen

March madness continues. It’s the second week of the NCAA tournament, and Round 3 tips off Thursday night. There have been the requisite few upsets this year as in so many others, but as you prepare to place your bet on the Sweet Sixteen this year, there are some trends to watch that can help you win big.

By this point, most of the “Cinderella” teams have been sent packing, but there are still a couple lurking about. This year, we have twelve-seeded Cornell, who will play Kentucky and is getting 8 points from BroburySports.com. Number 10 seed St. Mary’s of California looks to upset the pack. They meet Baylor, a 3 seed, in the South regional. Nine-seed Northern Iowa, who upset Kansas, a presumed final-four contender, will play a diminished five-seeded Michigan State squad. Finally, Eleven-seed Washington will take on two-seeded West Virginia. Those are all the games in which a seed of nine or lower has a chance to upset one of the big boys – seeds of five or higher. There are still other possible upsets, such as number five Butler over the top-seed in the West, Syracuse.

Typically, underdogs have had their last gasp in the Sweet Sixteen but have given the favorite a good fight, coming within the spread a healthy amount of the time. Over the past nine years, favorites are only 28-39-5 against the spread. * Teams favored to win by 7 or more are 22-1 straight up, but that drops to a surprising 12-11 against the spread. Even though the stats bear out the money line, it’s never fun to plop down $500 and tear your hair out for a potential $100 win.

The numbers reveal that your best option might be to take the lower-seeded teams if they are favored or underdogs getting 3.5 points tops. Over the past nine years, those teams have been 16-10, straight up and 17-8-1 against the spread. These numbers tell us that the spread has only been a factor twice in these games.

As far as overs/unders are concerned, the under seems to do best in Sweet Sixteen play. In games with a total of 129 or less, the unders have taken it 8 times with the over coming in just once. This tells us that when the bookmakers are thinking it’s going to be a low-scoring battle, they’re generally right.

This year, St. Mary’s has been on a tear, and analysts and commentators are touting them as the team to watch. Not to be outdone, though, is Northern Iowa, who is looking to parley their upset of Kansas into an appearance in the Elite Eight with a win over a Michigan State team whose top scorer is out for the season. Moreover, closer to the top, you have Butler taking a 22-game winning streak into their battle with the Orangemen of Syracuse. Pay special attention to Northern Iowa versus Michigan State, as State is clearly vulnerable without their top scoring threat.

Remember, history can only guide you so much when making picks in the “Big Dance.” At the same time, though, these trends clearly suggest betting strategies, which have a good chance of bringing you success.

* Numbers from sportsgambling.about.com.