Back fitting, a sports bettor’s worst nightmare

There are strong tendencies in the modern arena of sports betting to simplify the betting process by using systems. People like the thought of using simple rules in order to place bets and especially ones that lead to profits either in the short term or long term. Thousands of punters either buy systems or use systems that were popular years ago in the belief or the hope that they are still working.

The overwhelming number of people simply do not have the time or the knowledge to be able to design their own sports betting systems. The next generation of punters realise that the older systems are no longer working or are too well circulated to be of much use. So they set out to design their own systems to try and get ahead of the crowd.

Whether it is systems for horse racing or soccer betting or whatever, a common tactic is to design a system after first looking at past results. This is a very dangerous thing to do and this is so dangerous that it has a name and that is “back fitting”. This is the process of designing a system after looking at past results.

There are numerous flaws with doing this and the first one and also the most obvious is that the reason for the results can easily be an illusion as seeing patterns that are otherwise not there is a common failing with system designers. The problem with doing it back to front is that there is then a lack of proper hypothesis. Having a proper system that is grounded in solid principles is the key foundation and something that needs to be in place before you check the results and not after.

Some of the best sports betting systems that I have ever designed have been based around solid principles. Once you have the reasons that underpin the sports betting system, then and only then do you check the previous results and data to see if there is any validity to your hypothesis. Most of the time the results and data will not validate your opinions but in this instance, it hasn’t cost you anything as you simply do not use the system.

But in the instance where the data backs up your opinions then not only do you have supportive results but these results are now grounded in a sound and solid theory and the reasons behind why you have devised this particular sports betting system are valid.

I believe that this process is an important one in the design of most gambling and sports betting systems. But it is also the one that is overlooked the most as well. I am not saying that a system cannot work if approached from the other way around, all I am saying is that any gambling or sports betting system stands a much better chance of success if a good proper solid hypothesis is formed first and foremost.

You have to know why a sports betting system could possibly work before you look at past results. If you looked at the past 1000 spins on a roulette wheel and there had been 525 red numbers to only 475 black numbers then that wouldn’t indicate that red numbers were more likely to arrive than black. It s merely nothing more than a statistical quirk and should be seen as such.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson