Betting Exchange Psychology

Horse Racing is and probably always will be one of the biggest betting outlets in the entire country along with Football betting. Despite the fact that football is absolutely massive in terms of betting, the way in which the prices fluctuate have little resemblance to horse racing. There are many reasons for this but the main reason is to do with the fact that there are far less variables that dictate the result in a game of football than a horse race.

At the end of the day, there are only three possible results in a game of football, a home win, an away win or the draw. This is not the case with horse racing and this level of added complexity also means that it is far more difficult for the odds compilers to arrive at accurate tissue prices as well. There is so much potential information that is not available to the odds compilers in horse racing that arriving at an accurate price before the event is very difficult.

This is not the case in football and even when certain players are injured or absent then the result of Premier League games especially can be barely affected. There are so many hidden facts and data in horse racing that odds compilers cannot possibly know everything. Like how a horse will look in the parade ring for example, how they will appear moving down to the post, maybe the trainer or jockey will reveal vital information in the minutes prior to the off in an interview.

All of this could take place with any horse in the entire field and when this happens then it will lead to a movement in price. En masse, the betting public are itching to bet on something in most races. Most of the money on the betting exchanges actually filters in from the bottom. Sure there may be bookmakers hedging and traders trading but that still does not ignore the fact that the vast majority of the money in horse racing comes from the masses.

Much of this money indirectly finds its way onto the exchanges and if you can keep a very close eye on events, it then becomes possible to predict where the prices of certain horses may go to in the next few minutes or even moments. Using data screens that inform us of recent and past betting activity and liquidity levels can be a great source of information.

Knowing how far a horse has contracted or drifted in price in the few hours prior to the start is pivotal knowledge in trying to ascertain just where any future movement will be. It is basically common knowledge that the largest majority of punters money will be directed at the top end of the market in any horse race.

This means the top two or three in the betting. So if you can ascertain that the market at this stage has shown little interest in the favourite or second favourite and they have been drifting steadily then this may be an indication that the third favourite could be the one to fall in price.

This is not an exact science but knowing how the majority of punters think and understanding the mass psychology is one of the keys to successful exchange trading.

This article was written by Carl “The Dean” Sampson