Champions league betting – last round

We are standing in front of the last round in the Champions League’s group stage for this season and on Tuesday / Wednesday all the question mark that still is remaining is going to be answered. This round will be the last round 2009 in Champions League, because when the tourney returns with the knock out stage it will be in spring 2010. 

In these two texts I will give you my best picks and odds for these. I have chosen to separate Tuesday’s matches in this first article and then continue with Wednesday’s matches in next part.

One thing that you should keep in mind before betting is to watch the standings for each group and find out witch teams still have something to play for and witch teams already have secured their places. It can be a big deferens in their motivation and staring line-ups according to how important this game is. Here is a short explanation what deferens the different positions means:

Each group winner goes to the knock out round, of course, but with the added benefit that they will play the second game at home. All runner-ups in the group go to the knockout stage as well and will be drawn against the group winners. All third finishers in the groups will continue playing in the slightly less prestigious European League. And all the team that ends last in the groups have to end their European season for this year.

The pre conditions in group A – D is that Bordeaux already have won group A while Juventus and B München is fighting for the second place. Maccabi Haifa is still standing without one single point and will definitely finish last. 

In group B Manchester United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moskva is fighting for a place in the knock out stage while Besiktas has a small chance to finish third if they beat CSKA in the last game with 1 – 0 or two goals up. 

Group C is a battle between AC Milan and Marseille for the second place. Real Madrid has already won the group and FC Zürich will finish last.

And in group D Chelsea and Porto have secured the first and second place. Atletico Madrid and Apoel are struggling to finish third.

Here are all the matches and odds that will be played on Tuesday:

 All the odds is from bwin-champions-league

Juventus 2.30 draw 3.45 FC Bayern München 2.80 

Maccabi Haifa 2.40 draw 3.30 Girondins de Bordeaudraw 2.75

Besiktas 2.75 draw 3.40 CSKA Moskva 2.35

VfL Wolfsburg 2.45 draw 3.35 Manchester United 2.65  

FC Zürich 6.75 draw 4.50 AC Milan 1.40 

Olympique de Marseille 2.95 draw 3.45 Real Madrid 2.20 

Atlético Madrid 1.75  draw 3.40 FC Porto 4.60

FC Chelsea 1.35 draw 4.40 APOEL 7.50 

And here comes my best bet for this day 

FC Zürich 6.75 draw 4.50 AC Milan 1.40 – home win @ 1.40 

Ac Milan has everything in their own hand in this last round. They are one point ahead of third placed Marseille from France and that means that if Ac Milan wins this game they are trough from this group. 

At the same time FC Zürich are five points behind Marseille, so they don’t have anything but their honour to play for.

The Italian teams, and especially Milan, have this strange ability to somehow always go trough from these tough situations that they put them selves in. And I am pretty sure that they will to the same this time as well. 

It’s remarkable that Milan only loss in this group came against Zürich at home in the second round. But that was probably a combination of underestimation and that they had some kind of over reliance of themselves. Now when the match means so much all their experience players will take a step forward and win this game for them. So even though the odds seams a bit low to be an away game in Champions League, I am pretty sure that AC Milan will go win and go trough. And if they win this game it doesn’t matter how the second match in this group between Marseille vs Real Madrid ends. 

Some other interesting odds that might be valuable:

Juventus 2.30 draw 3.45 FC Bayern München 2.80 – Draw @3.45 

This is a very interesting game in group A. Bayern München seamed to be knocked out before last round, but since Bordeaux won in their home game against Juventus the German side still have the chance to go trough. 

Juventus is one point ahead of B München before this sixth round and that means that Bayern München has to win this game to go trough, if they don’t Juventus will follow Bordeaux to the last 16. And just as I mentioned above – the Italian sides are experts on playing on result and just go trough. Even Inter Milan is in the same position as Juventus and Milan in this sixth round and I would not be surprised if all of them goes trough. 

The forth Italian team in this tournament, Fiorentina, is already in the knock out stage and it means that Italy can be the only country with four teams in the knock out stage since Liverpool and Atletico Madrid for sure will miss to qualify. 

 I think that the draw in this game in interesting, and as always the draw pays pretty well.

In the next text, below here, I continue with my best picks and analysis from group F – H.