Champions League, Round four – Group C + D

It is time for the forth round of the Champions League 2009 / 2010 on Tuesday and Wednesday. As I often do I will break down the matches of this round in two groups each. In this text I will give you my thoughts about group C and D witch is played on Tuesday. Both my best pick and even my analysis for the rest of the games.

This is the matches and odds for group C + D:

AC Milan 2.55   draw 3.35   Real Madrid 2.55

Olympique de Marseille 1.25   draw 5.50   FC Zürich 10.00

APOEL 5.40    draw 3.65    FC Porto 1.60

Atlético Madrid 4.00    draw 3.60     FC Chelsea 1.80
My best pick:

AC Milan vs. Real Madrid, away win @ 2.55

According to the bookies this match the odds is totally even between AC Milan and Real Madrid. I am not sure that I can agree with that. AC Milan is always AC Milan and no matter how bad they are in the league, they always lift some steps in European cups.

But I think that Real Madrid have god chances to win this game after their loss in the away game home at Santiago Bernabeu. Maybe Milan won that game, but looking to the game I think that Real Madrid was way better and they also had three or four chances to score their second goal in the first half. And if they would I think that they had won that game pretty easy. There was absolutely noting that was going AC Milan’s way and they where totally out played. Even though Milan finally won that game (2 – 3) their three chances where their only chances of the game, actually they didn’t had three chances either but one or two since Real Madrid’s goal keeper, Iker Casillas, made some very rare mistakes.

Both these teams are standing at 6 points before this round and a win would probably mean that the winning team has secured a place in the knock out stage later in the spring.

When I break down the positions of these teams I find that Real Madrid is way better. Those positions that the difference is big are the Goal keepers and attacking-side. Normally Iker Casillas in Real Madrid’s goal is way better then Dida in AC Milan’s. But the biggest difference is in the Attacking force where Real Madrid has Christiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Raul Gonzales, Gonzalo Heguain, Kaka and so on.

Real Madrid has a bad period behind themselves even though they have this strong team and their chairman Florentino Perez, has said that if Real Madrid don’t win their two coming matches (before their league win against Getafe with 2 – 0) he will sack their manager Pellegrini.

AC Milan has starting to win again after a bad start in both league and Champions League. Home at San Siro I think that they have a hard game coming on Tuesday. I think that 2.55 in odds on away win tastes well and try that pick.

My analysis of the rest of the games in group C and D:

Olympique de Marseille 1.25   draw 5.50   FC Zürich 10.00

Zürich beat AC Milan in their last away game in Champions League with 0 – 1. The standings in this group is pretty even with two teams with 6 points (Real Madrid and Milan) and these two teams with 3 points each.

So it’s not excessively that this game means a lot for the rest of this teams Champions League adventure. My feeling is that Marseille is the stronger team and have god chances to win home at stadt velodrome. But Zürich has shown that they can compete with teams at this level so I don’t bet on this game.

APOEL 5.40    draw 3.65    FC Porto 1.60

I am not that sure that FC Porto will win this game as easy as many others seem to think. Apoel has surprised me in a positive way so far in Champions League. For example they only lost the away game against Porto with 2 – 1 and even in their last home game it was a small loose against Chelsea (0 – 1). Before that they took one point in the away game against Atletico Madrid so they haven’t played bad at all.

Porto is of course favourites but if I would recommend any picks here it would be home win or draw to interesting odds.

Atlético Madrid 4.00    draw 3.60     FC Chelsea 1.80

This is a hard game to predict. Atletico has gone way worse then everyone had expected and they are going bad both in the Spanish league and in Champions League. But since Chelsea almost are trough to next round and Atletico has everything to play for, and since they have a new manager in Madrid I am not sure that Chelsea will win this game. So wont bet here either.

The odds is picked from Bwin-football

/Best Regards Amrish