General Election Political Betting Tips

Every four years the UK public goes to the ballot box to decide which party leads the government for the next Parliamentary term. The battle lines are being drawn up as we speak in the campaign leading up to the election on May 6th. There are numerous betting opportunities available for those wishing to have a bet on Politics, here are my thoughts on what the best bets are right now, using betting odds from bwin.

Voting Percentage Turnout

60.00 or less – 9/4
60.01 – 65.00 – 37/20
65.01 – 70.00 – 13/4
70.01 – 75.00 – 4/1
75.01 – 80.00 – 12/1

In the 2005 general election voter turn-out was 61.4%. Considering there has been the expenses scandal and numerous other political scandals it is up to you to judge whether this will drive people away from the ballot box because of distrust of politicians or bring people back to the ballot box to vote for a change or have their say in who leads us into 2011 and beyond.

Unfortunately in this country many people are apathetic towards politics so I do not think there will be a massive drop in the voting turnout. I must, however, assume that as it is usually the older generation who vote, many of whom will have died since 2005; the younger generation not being motivated to vote suggests to me that the sensible bet here would be the 9/4 on less than 60% of the voting population actually voting.

I do not think there will be a major change in turn-out, but if there is a change I believe it will be downwards.

Party with the most Seats

Conservative Party – 3/25
Labour Party – 9/2
Liberal Democrats – 100/1

You can remove the Lib Dems from the market as they will probably do slightly better than in 2005 but they will not win the most seats. Labour currently has 356 seats to the Conservatives 198, but every newspaper report and commentators view suggests that there is likely to be a big vote for change at this election. The sensible bet is on the Conservatives getting the most seats and the polls suggest that they will be very close to getting an overall majority. The election is certainly still in the balance, however, so watch the news closely for developments, especially in regards to the support for David Cameron.

Overall Majority

Yes – 1/2
No – 7/5

The Conservatives need the biggest swing since 1945 in order to gain even the smallest full majority. The jury is still out on the leadership team of David Cameron and George Osborne as to whether they can lead the UK out of the biggest recession in living memory. Labour, however, whilst pointing this out has had thirteen years in power and it is hard for them to promise change when they have had so long to deliver change already. Labour still believes they can get a majority and the country has a history of defying the polls. In my view, a hung Parliament at 7/5 seems a good bet as this election is so finely in the balance. Every vote counts, so make sure you make yours on May 6th!

The newspapers and TV cover the election campaign extensively so you have plenty of daily news to read about to work out your best bets. Bear in mind that the newspapers will usually have an allegiance to one party or the other so you will need to make up your mind what the objective reports are. Get your bets on early just in case the result starts to look obvious.

Please note the odds are correct as of April 12th 2010 and are subject to change at anytime by bwin.com.

By Malcolm Clarke