I will start to give you all my best bettingtips in the game between Argentina vs Spain and then follow that up with my best tips from Paraguay vs Spain. I have choose to pick the odds from bwin bet on world cup and one of the reasons that I do that is because they have the biggest offer in different odds and betting opportunities of all the betting sites.

There are over 300 different betting opportunities at bwin, which can be compared with most of the sites that offers about 100 different bets per match.

Paraguay vs. Spain, odds: Paraguay to win, odds: 8.00, draw odds: 4.50, Spain to win, odds: 1.40

My bettingtips:

Paraguay vs. Spain – Spain to win @ 1.40

Paraguay has never been in a quarterfinal in the World cup’s history before so this is a very big game for them. But the fact is that Spain never have been further then a quarterfinal before either, which can be hard to think compared to the team that Spain has, and have got for a long time.

I think that the fact that Spain did so well in the European Championship two years ago (when they won the Gold medal) has helped them a lot in this World cup.

It started as it often do for Spain in World cup, they lost against Switzerland with 1 – 0. When that happened, I am pretty sure that most of the Spaniards thought something like “Not this time as well”. Because Spain was, the biggest favourites to win the World cup according to the odds before the championship started and that even thought they have never been in a semi-final before.

Nevertheless, after their loss against Switzerland they came back strongly and won against both Honduras and Chile (2 – 0 and 2 – 1) which took them trough to the second round. In the first match of the second round they played against their neighbours Portugal in a great game where Portugal seemed to bee the strongest team but where Spain made a substitution and that changed the game. Spain won with 1 – 0 after that David Villa (who else?) scored his fourth goal of the tournament.

Paraguay has been doing very well and has only let one goal in so far. They started with 1 – 1 against the former trophy holders Italy and after that they won against Slovakia with 2 – 0. In their last group match they played 0 – 0 against New Zeeland, but in that game they where not forced to win. In the second round they was headed against Japan and won after penalties (0 – 0 after ordinary time).

So none of these teams as impressed that much so far, but still one of the teams will go to the semi-finals. My feeling is that Spain is growing as they are going further and that they have good opportunities to win this game. I do not think that it will be an easy game but I still think that Spain is too good for Paraguay. Actually I would say that the odds on a Spanish win is a bit too low to bet on if it would had been a group-game or friendly, but now when it is a quarterfinal I have a feeling that the Spanish world-class-players will improve their game and win.

Paraguay vs. Spain, correct result: 0 – 1 @ 5.20 in odds

It’s not often that I place a bettingtips on correct result, but this time I have a strong feeling that this game can end 1 – 0 for Spain. I had the same feeling in their game against Portugal, but this time I am going to place a bet on that as well.

As I wrote above, these two teams have not been scoring too many goals forward. In addition, Paraguay has shown a strong defensively strength and I am pretty sure that they will try to hold up 0 – 0 as long as they can. Almost all of the Spanish players are playing in Spanish league for some of the top clubs, and if they come up to a normal standard, at least one of these players should be able to score eventually. Spain has David Villa, Fernando Torres, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Fernando Ilorente, Andres Iniesta and the question is for how long time Paraguay can stand up with their defensive line.

I choose to bet the result 0 – 1 to Spain since I think this will be a tight game in the beginning and that Spain will score in the second half. And when/if they do, they are one of the best nations in the world to pass the ball. If you choose to bet on 0 – 1 result for Spain and that is the standing late in the game I can even recommend you to keep an eye on the livebetting. It might being worth to hedge that bet if you have a high stake since the odds is over 5.00.

My best bettingtips from Argentina vs Germany follows in the next text

Now it would be obvious here that you would be betting without any clear indication of what the true odds should be as you do not know the relative numbers of different coloured balls in the bag. But now let us take this into another phase where a punter has done their homework and has found that out of those 20 balls……10 are red….4 are white…..2 are blue…..2 are green and 2 are black.

Now what this analysis has done is identify the likely winner which in this case is red as there are 2.5x the number of red balls than the next highest colour which is white. So if we had to bet on which colour would be likely to appear then the bet would need to be on red above any other colour. But in betting then this does us little use for the following important reason! The bookmakers are setting the prices and so you will probably be receiving smaller odds than the event actually happening.

If we look at what the true odds should be in this analogy then we simply convert the number of balls to a percentage and then to odds. There are ten red balls which equates to a 50% chance of red appearing…..50% in odds form is Even money. There are four white balls out of twenty which is 20%…..expressed as odds then this is 4/1. A brief summary of the remaining three colours shows that there are two of each which equate to 10% per ball and 10% in odds is 9/1.

So the true odds of red are Evens, white is 4/1 and the rest are 9/1 each. But what if we looked at the prices that a bookmaker was giving us and he was offering 4/6 on red? Suddenly it appears that a bet on red is not such a great proposition after all as the odds do not reflect the chances of red appearing. Continuing to bet on red at those odds would lead to long term losses. But what if the second favourite was being offered at odds of 6/1? This now represents value as even though the white ball is less likely to appear than the red, as a betting proposition then it is a far better bet as it has the potential for long term profits.

So who will win the World Cup in South Africa? As usual there will be upsets, heartache, penalty shoot-outs, key injuries and teams getting lucky. But that just reflects any cup competition. A team needs an element of luck to win it. Look at Italy four years ago, they had a relatively easy group and did not really play anyone of note until Germany in the semi-final. That was a huge slice of luck and then Zidane gets sent off in the final and they win the penalty shoot-out.

It was exactly the same in 2002 when Germany had a very fortunate series of games to go all the way to the final where they came close to winning it with a very mediocre side. So it is clear that the “luck of the draw” will play a great part. England and Spain have relatively straight forward groups which hopefully should allow them to progress and be able to rest players if England get themselves into that situation.

But the team that wins the tournament is also going to need a very strong squad because to win the World Cup means playing seven games in a month. Bookings will be inevitable and this will lead to suspensions and players will also pick up injuries. When players are already at the end of a long gruelling season then injuries may be lurking just around the corner.

Often it is impossible to identify some types of injuries and some players could be on the verge of picking up injuries that are impossible to detect at this time. So a team will need a strong squad but it definitely helps to have softer games in the earlier stages. This certainly takes the burden off a team at the later stages of the competition.

Many people are quoting Spain as the potential winners and they certainly are the best team in the tournament. But once again the question is, will they be lucky? They are already having problems with players like Torres and Xavi having injuries and should they lose these two players then that would be a major blow for them.

So the World Cup countdown starts here and the luck also starts here and that will continue into the World Cup groups. We already saw how David Beckham will miss the tournament and while he would not have been in the starting eleven, he would have easily been in the squad and he would have certainly been a vital squad member.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

These days with in play markets and live betting then there is simply no need to throw entire matches by losing them or fixing match scores. These days there is so much in play action that simply throwing one single frame can mean huge swings in profit or loss for bookmakers. In play betting now is very big business and probably will only get bigger. But there is simply no way that you can ever prove this type of cheating in actual play.

If a top player wanted to throw a frame of Snooker at a key moment then it would be ridiculously easy to do so. The standard of Snooker is so high now that any slight error would lead to at least a break of between 40-70 and these are often frame winning scores. It simply isn’t possible to detect that a player missed a ball on purpose. The thing is that at the start of the frame, the player does not put himself into the situation where he has to miss a simple shot.

But then again you don’t even have to miss a ball for a break to come to an end. Simply losing position on the next shot could be all it takes but if a player is looking to throw a frame then there is every chance that his opponent might just win that frame on merit and this means that his opponent didn’t even have to do anything at all to win that frame. The closer it gets to the end of the match then the more violent will be the fluctuations with regards to the price movements in play.

We are now entering a whole new world of cheating and when WPBSA chairman Barry Hearn stated that he had every intention of wiping out this “disease” then I really do wish him the best of luck because he is going to need it. There is literally no chance that he could ever hope to eliminate all forms of cheating. Players even have the opportunity to lay themselves in play with the use of an accomplice at key stages of matches without even getting a third party like a bookmaker involved at all.

So the chances of finding every single cheating player are simply too high to contemplate. It is simply not possible to keep the world of gambling and bookmaking and the actual playing of the sport or game apart indefinitely. This is the way of the world and it is here to stay and the advancement of the online betting world has made this so. As a stop press, I cannot wait for the Champions League final and my money is certainly on Inter Milan and Champions League football betting will probably not be as high this season with regards to English people seeing as there is no British interest in the final for the first time since 2004…….But Mourinho should provide some interest.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

Let me explain, let us say for example that you have just backed the 1.25 favourite in the 2.30 at Windsor and it has duly repaid you by romping to victory and your total win is £150 on that particular wager plus your stake back. But you had £122 left in your account after you made the bet on the favourite at Windsor. After seeing your horse win, the system takes several minutes to process the result and the money to go into your account.

Because of this, that now means that you cannot back anything with any more than the £122 that you currently have in your account. So if you want to back a mount in the imminent 2.35 at Southwell then your limit is £122 until your funds from the 2.30 at Windsor actually clear. It also means that you cannot LAY anything as well that would have a total liability of more than £122 until that money goes into your account.

Let me give you another example, let us say that you have exactly £1000 in your account and you think that England at 8-1 have little or no chance of winning the 2010 Football World Cup. The decimal online sports betting odds system that betting exchanges use would quote this as 9.0 meaning that you would return 9 x whatever your bet was.

So an 8-1 shot when you are BACKING your fancy would in fact be risking £100 to win £800 but you would collect £900 because of the fact that you would also be returning your original stake as well, meaning that you would be collecting 9 x whatever your bet was. But when you LAY a selection then you are in fact acting as the bookmaker so your total possible win is £100 if England do in fact fail to win the World Cup. But you have acted as bookmaker and have given odds of 9.0 (8-1) so if England do go on to lift the trophy then your loss will be £800 and not £100 as many new exchange punters think.

This means that as soon as you LAY England at 8-1 or 9.0 then you are tying up not £100 but £800 which means that you will only have £200 out of the £1000 that you originally had left inside your account as the prospect of you losing the bet is factored in by the system and your money will not be returned until England are eliminated from the competition and your total possible loss (£800) is returned plus your £100 winnings thus making your new balance £1100 (less commission) presuming of course that you have not placed any more action in the meantime.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

The overwhelming number of people simply do not have the time or the knowledge to be able to design their own sports betting systems. The next generation of punters realise that the older systems are no longer working or are too well circulated to be of much use. So they set out to design their own systems to try and get ahead of the crowd.

Whether it is systems for horse racing or football betting or whatever, a common tactic is to design a system after first looking at past results. This is a very dangerous thing to do and this is so dangerous that it has a name and that is “back fitting”. This is the process of designing a system after looking at past results.

There are numerous flaws with doing this and the first one and also the most obvious is that the reason for the results can easily be an illusion as seeing patterns that are otherwise not there is a common failing with system designers. The problem with doing it back to front is that there is then a lack of proper hypothesis. Having a proper system that is grounded in solid principles is the key foundation and something that needs to be in place before you check the results and not after.

Some of the best sports betting systems that I have ever designed have been based around solid principles. Once you have the reasons that underpin the sports betting system, then and only then do you check the previous results and data to see if there is any validity to your hypothesis. Most of the time the results and data will not validate your opinions but in this instance, it hasn’t cost you anything as you simply do not use the system.

But in the instance where the data backs up your opinions then not only do you have supportive results but these results are now grounded in a sound and solid theory and the reasons behind why you have devised this particular sports betting system are valid.

I believe that this process is an important one in the design of most gambling and sports betting systems. But it is also the one that is overlooked the most as well. I am not saying that a system cannot work if approached from the other way around, all I am saying is that any gambling or sports betting system stands a much better chance of success if a good proper solid hypothesis is formed first and foremost.

You have to know why a sports betting system could possibly work before you look at past results. If you looked at the past 1000 spins on a roulette wheel and there had been 525 red numbers to only 475 black numbers then that wouldn’t indicate that red numbers were more likely to arrive than black. It s merely nothing more than a statistical quirk and should be seen as such.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

People fail for numerous reasons and one of those is to try and shoot too high. This happens a lot in poker and if more players contented themselves by keeping to low stakes and not trying to be hotshots all the time then they would have a long and prosperous career as a poker player.

The next question is, do you need to have an encyclopaedic knowledge of sport or odds? I suppose it helps but then again it can also be a hindrance too. I have an encyclopaedic knowledge of poker but yet I don’t play that high whenever I do play. Sometimes having a lot of knowledge about something can be a terrible handicap because it leads you to go down paths that you really shouldn’t be going down.

I make money from sports betting and on sports that I have no in depth knowledge of. I understand an awful lot about most sports but there is a world of difference between understanding about a sport and understanding it on a professional level. I know an awful lot about cricket and football but yet when you compare that to the in depth technical knowledge of professional players then my knowledge is somewhat limited in these areas.

So how do I make money from betting on sports? Well there are numerous ways to get the job done and the puzzle is how to defeat the professional odds compilers who are studying these sports for a living whilst not really having the time to do so yourself.

This puzzle fascinated me for ages and I eventually found a solution. The Internet and the media and the recent huge interest in sports betting have led to professionals and ex-professionals being paid to give their opinions.

These are precisely the kind of people who you should be listening to. Some sports journalist may really know his field but in my view, he cannot know it better than a professional working on the inside. So my own method of operation is to cross reference respected professional opinion in certain ways.

I prefer to do this in some sports over others and what I am trying to establish is if certain odds with certain betting firms are out of sync with where they should be. Of course this does not always mean that the betting firm in question has made a mistake. Most of the time they are working to their own individual strategies!

It is easier for me to be able to figure out when certain prices are wrong without necessarily knowing what the correct theoretical price should be. This may sound odd but not once you understand it. The recent bout between Nikolai Valuev and David Haye is a classic case in point. The cross referencing of professional opinion had Valuev as at least an even money shot.

Most of the professional fighters were making him favourite although not a huge favourite so getting 2.15 on him was something of a good price. Despite the fact that he lost, I was still happy that I took the bet at that price. I would have taken anything 2.00 or above based on my assessment of his overall chances using my usual method of cross referencing pro opinion.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

This professional gambler probably had top rated information on gambles that were primed possibly months in advance. I’m no expert on horse racing but I imagine that this is the only real method where big profits can be made. Sports betting does provide more secure ways of punting but knowledge of a “gamble” does not really exist in sports. We have seen attempts in Snooker for example to manipulate odds, but on the whole Sports betting is quite straight forward in the matches playing themselves out quite fairly.

This means it is generally easier to calculate odds as a compiler making it really hard for punters to beat the over rounds and make sports betting profitable long term. Many have tried and few have managed to do it. So what does it take to win, is it even possible?

Neil “Bad Beat” Channing is a profitable staker of poker players these days and he tells of a time when he basically locked himself away in his bedroom everyday and made a living for two years paying off various debts by betting on sports. He says that he made £5000 per week and sent £4500 to his creditors and kept £500 for himself. Alas he did not go into detail about his methods to those profits, but it shows winning long term and winning well is certainly possible. As a reputable member of the gambling community, he was candid about his losses in other forms of gambling so we can assume he is honest about his wins.

You must have a keen eye for value. This is the key to good sports betting. Picking winners is fine but without value you are picking the winners out at the price favourable to the bookmakers. For instance, betting constantly on a heavy favourite in order to show a profit you need a long winning streak and the bookmakers have a knack of pricing the odds in their favour. Value allows you to win more than you should from the bet, giving you that winning edge over time. A talented sports bettor can spot value a mile away.

Spotting this value means considering all factors that contribute to pricing. This needs a solid understanding of the key components of the sport they are assessing and correct weighting of these factors against the odds of the outcome. For example, a football match involving Liverpool without Gerrard or Torres is a large factor in determining value. If Gerrard and Torres play, but Lucas is injured, their chances of winning probably remain the same as Lucas does not have the same impact on each game as the star players. This is an obvious example but the talented sports bettor will spot value based on far more subtle factors in a variety of sports.

True sports betting success means selecting a certain bet and knowing how value allows a profit over time. They will be able to handle the emotion of wins and losses and know that over time they are proven winners. Not many can, but big profits are on offer for those that learn and master the techniques. The talented sports bettor will know and utilise the betting exchanges, the bookmakers on the high street and be a keen statistician and follower of sports. Then they turn that into healthy profit. The encouraging thing for everyone is that all the information is out there, how it is used separates the winners from the losers and the big winners from the break even punters.

By Malcolm Clarke