Now it would be obvious here that you would be betting without any clear indication of what the true odds should be as you do not know the relative numbers of different coloured balls in the bag. But now let us take this into another phase where a punter has done their homework and has found that out of those 20 balls……10 are red….4 are white…..2 are blue…..2 are green and 2 are black.

Now what this analysis has done is identify the likely winner which in this case is red as there are 2.5x the number of red balls than the next highest colour which is white. So if we had to bet on which colour would be likely to appear then the bet would need to be on red above any other colour. But in betting then this does us little use for the following important reason! The bookmakers are setting the prices and so you will probably be receiving smaller odds than the event actually happening.

If we look at what the true odds should be in this analogy then we simply convert the number of balls to a percentage and then to odds. There are ten red balls which equates to a 50% chance of red appearing…..50% in odds form is Even money. There are four white balls out of twenty which is 20%…..expressed as odds then this is 4/1. A brief summary of the remaining three colours shows that there are two of each which equate to 10% per ball and 10% in odds is 9/1.

So the true odds of red are Evens, white is 4/1 and the rest are 9/1 each. But what if we looked at the prices that a bookmaker was giving us and he was offering 4/6 on red? Suddenly it appears that a bet on red is not such a great proposition after all as the odds do not reflect the chances of red appearing. Continuing to bet on red at those odds would lead to long term losses. But what if the second favourite was being offered at odds of 6/1? This now represents value as even though the white ball is less likely to appear than the red, as a betting proposition then it is a far better bet as it has the potential for long term profits.

With the World Cup fast approaching we England fans are watching the sport news closely to see how Wayne Rooney’s groin is recovering, whether Gareth Barry will recover in time for the tournament and hoping that Lampard does not get injured in the FA Cup final next weekend. It is a stressful time for football fans! When the football matches eventually start the bookmakers have estimated more money will be bet on the world cup than ever before, even in the aftermath of a deep global recession! So what is so good about sports betting?

Betting on sports help us to feel part of the game and it also satisfies many parts of human nature. The idea of risking money and taking risks appeals to people, as does making money and feeling the euphoria of winning. Some players even enjoy losing, although I would never recommend becoming hooked on that emotion. As emotional beings humans enjoy feeling euphoric. You will have heard the phrase “the bookmaker always wins”. The feeling of taking money from bookmakers and bucking the trend of bookmakers coming out on top keeps many sports bettors returning for another attempt to win money.

We are all gamblers at heart. Business people risk thousands of pounds everyday betting that their business model will continue to work today as it did yesterday. Financial traders risk the money in your bank playing the world markets to make their banks profits. Property investors are betting on the market increasing the value of their homes. Sports betting is a recreational version of the reality we all live in; risk. We are trained to take risks in life so it is natural we gravitate towards creating similar conditions in our spare time. (Sports bettors are therefore similar to other adrenalin junkies like surfers or rock climbers)

Placing a bet on bwin.com for my favourite Pool player to win their match and watching the live streaming via bwin.com causes a strange thing to happen. I suddenly really care about the result. Each ball means something; each rack is a step closer to not only the player’s goal in winning the match but in my goal in winning my bet. My heart is pumping and I feel nervous, but in a good way. I know that my bankroll management means I am not feeling nervous because I am risking too much, I am just enjoying that feeling of being involved and trying to win some money. Sport becomes much more meaningful to me during the bet and gives me a reason to cheer for the outcome I want because there is something at the end of it.

The amazing thing about sports betting is that you do not need to bet large amounts of money to feel this enjoyment. A bet of £1 feels good when you win and you collect winnings. Thankfully bwin.com has a lot of variety and plenty of sports to bet on so you will always have a match, game or event to research and bet on. That is another part of sports betting that is fun; working out the likely outcome, spotting value and claiming your reward for this knowledge when your well thought out sports bet wins for you.

When the World Cup starts, make sure bwin.com adds that extra spice to the excitement. I cannot wait!

By Malcolm Clarke

The upcoming transfer window offers teams the opportunities to refresh their personnel and jolt their league position. It has an impact on the football betting odds offered and therefore presents an opportunity to football betting fans to get some value as the equilibrium of the season so far is disrupted. The top team’s activity in the transfer window is important to these changes so let us look at what they may do in the transfer window to be ready to capture potential value as it appears.

Chelsea

With their upcoming transfer ban being decided after the window expect Roman Abramovich to spend big in the transfer window. Chelsea’s squad are ageing and Ancelotti will know that three or four young signings with the ability to make an immediate impact both now and over the next two seasons are vital to Chelsea’s success beyond this season. Expect furious activity this January from Chelsea.

Most of the transfers will probably be younger players with European reputations however there has been rumours of a £45 million Franck Ribery bid with Manchester City also said to be interested.

Man Utd

Alex Ferguson has reassured Nani that he has a future at Old Trafford and looks like he will await the development of Danny Wellbeck, Federico Macheda and Johnny Evans to replace the ageing Gary Neville, Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. With Wayne Rooney spearheading the team, Ferguson looks to have purchased all the prospects he wishes to replace senior squad members.

There is not normally any activity during the January transfer window from Old Trafford. They will need to perform well if they are to catch Chelsea after Christmas. Emerging into top players are Evra, Anderson and Carrick which reduce the need for new signings. Owen Hargreaves return from long term injury will be as good as a new signing for them.

Arsenal

As always the club stresses to the press that there is money available for Arsene Wenger. True to form, he rarely spends it preferring business stability to irresponsible signings. Arsenal are in transition and I expect more integration of players like Wilshere, Ramsey, Randall and Gibbs. The injury to Gibbs and Van Persie may force transfer activity, but I think Wenger would prefer to try out Carlos Vela as a replacement to the injured Dutchman. In terms of football betting, analyse the team as you did in the first half of the season as there will be no drastic changes, other than the impact of their current injuries.

Liverpool

The Merseyside team managed a good 2-0 away to Everton in the derby but still remain prone to random defeats. Because they have been eliminated from the Champions League that revenue is cut, meaning they probably cannot spend even if they want to. Football betting fans may find value in their opponents in the second half of the season. Aquilani, their £20 million summer signing should be in the team from now on and he will be like a January signing, but will this be enough to save them? Their financial situation is publicly unstable and they could end up as another “Newcastle Utd and Leeds Utd” footballing tragedy of mismanaged finances.

Manchester City

Seven draws in a row and a lacklustre Robinho has shown the City fans that big spending is not the only ingredient to success. Mark Hughes position is under threat as the big name players need a Capello-type manager to lead them it seems. If he survives the chequebook could be used as a weapon again in January. City failed to sign Kaka and other big names and the biggest names are the players they crave. They may be the only team to rival Chelsea in spending, but look like they cannot rival them on the pitch. Football betting fans could see Manchester City look value if they strengthen in the right areas.

By Malcolm Clarke

Nikolai Davydenko 1.85 Robin Soderling 1.85

My tennis tip for this match is Davydenko. Before the emergence of Del Potro and Murray Davydenko was a solid performer in the top five. Whilst he rarely manages to beat the likes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal he maintains his rankings by winning circuit events and proving very hard to beat for players outside of the top few ranking spots. Soderling has benefited from being coached by Magnus Norman, but lacks the quality to regularly beat the top players. Davydenko is the best bet here at a reasonable heads up price of 1.85, but do not go crazy as this match is very close, particularly if Soderling is on form.

Rafa Nadal 1.70 Nikolai Davydenko 2.03

I find it hard to believe that Davydenko can be offered at even money to beat Nadal. Nadal is so far superior to Davydenko that I think 1.70 even offers value. My tip is for Nadal to win and you should consider bwins odds of 3.33 that Davydenko will not win a set in this match. You simply cannot see Nadal losing in this game and I would expect odds of around 1.50 for Nadal in this match so consider 1.70 to hold some value. Even when injured I would expect a Nadal win here, such is my confidence in his Tennis ability.

Rafa Nadal 2.94 Novak Djokovic 1.35

Djokovic played amazingly well against Nadal to win in Paris and Nadal commented afterwards that this was the best he had ever seen Novak play. I think Djokovic will at least get to the final here but is Nadal a value bet here? I think he certainly is. Rarely does a player beat Nadal easily twice in a row in such a short period of time; even Federer has not managed it! I think Nadal will make the necessary adjustments and beat Djokovic, probably in three sets. A lot depends on Nadals fitness as he has certainly been hampered by injuries this season. This should be another very close match.

Roger Federer 1.66 Andy Murray 2.09

Murray has always had the better of Federer on the hard courts, apart from the US Open final in 2008 where his inexperience at the grand slam final level let him down. With many circuit event wins to give him confidence, I think you can expect Murray to give Federer a really good game here. Betting on either player offers reasonable odds I think and Federer is certainly the favourite. Murray has beaten him before and both took long breaks after the US Open making the result hard to predict as we are unsure of their form. Perhaps a small wager on Murray to heap the misery on Federer who lost to Benneteau last week in his most surprise defeat for quite some time.

Murray is 1.22 to beat Verdasco at 3.82 in his other match. Verdasco managed to beat Murray at the Australian Open but when Murray is playing well he seems to win his sets 6-2 and 6-3 against the Spanish player. If you think Murray is vulnerable after injury the 3.82 could be a good bet. Watch out for Djokovic to cement his place near the top of the game in this tournament, you heard it here first! Enjoy your tennis betting this weekend and remember to check out the bwin live betting opportunities.

By Malcolm Clarke