Let me explain, let us say for example that you have just backed the 1.25 favourite in the 2.30 at Windsor and it has duly repaid you by romping to victory and your total win is £150 on that particular wager plus your stake back. But you had £122 left in your account after you made the bet on the favourite at Windsor. After seeing your horse win, the system takes several minutes to process the result and the money to go into your account.

Because of this, that now means that you cannot back anything with any more than the £122 that you currently have in your account. So if you want to back a mount in the imminent 2.35 at Southwell then your limit is £122 until your funds from the 2.30 at Windsor actually clear. It also means that you cannot LAY anything as well that would have a total liability of more than £122 until that money goes into your account.

Let me give you another example, let us say that you have exactly £1000 in your account and you think that England at 8-1 have little or no chance of winning the 2010 Football World Cup. The decimal online sports betting odds system that betting exchanges use would quote this as 9.0 meaning that you would return 9 x whatever your bet was.

So an 8-1 shot when you are BACKING your fancy would in fact be risking £100 to win £800 but you would collect £900 because of the fact that you would also be returning your original stake as well, meaning that you would be collecting 9 x whatever your bet was. But when you LAY a selection then you are in fact acting as the bookmaker so your total possible win is £100 if England do in fact fail to win the World Cup. But you have acted as bookmaker and have given odds of 9.0 (8-1) so if England do go on to lift the trophy then your loss will be £800 and not £100 as many new exchange punters think.

This means that as soon as you LAY England at 8-1 or 9.0 then you are tying up not £100 but £800 which means that you will only have £200 out of the £1000 that you originally had left inside your account as the prospect of you losing the bet is factored in by the system and your money will not be returned until England are eliminated from the competition and your total possible loss (£800) is returned plus your £100 winnings thus making your new balance £1100 (less commission) presuming of course that you have not placed any more action in the meantime.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

The overwhelming number of people simply do not have the time or the knowledge to be able to design their own sports betting systems. The next generation of punters realise that the older systems are no longer working or are too well circulated to be of much use. So they set out to design their own systems to try and get ahead of the crowd.

Whether it is systems for horse racing or football betting or whatever, a common tactic is to design a system after first looking at past results. This is a very dangerous thing to do and this is so dangerous that it has a name and that is “back fitting”. This is the process of designing a system after looking at past results.

There are numerous flaws with doing this and the first one and also the most obvious is that the reason for the results can easily be an illusion as seeing patterns that are otherwise not there is a common failing with system designers. The problem with doing it back to front is that there is then a lack of proper hypothesis. Having a proper system that is grounded in solid principles is the key foundation and something that needs to be in place before you check the results and not after.

Some of the best sports betting systems that I have ever designed have been based around solid principles. Once you have the reasons that underpin the sports betting system, then and only then do you check the previous results and data to see if there is any validity to your hypothesis. Most of the time the results and data will not validate your opinions but in this instance, it hasn’t cost you anything as you simply do not use the system.

But in the instance where the data backs up your opinions then not only do you have supportive results but these results are now grounded in a sound and solid theory and the reasons behind why you have devised this particular sports betting system are valid.

I believe that this process is an important one in the design of most gambling and sports betting systems. But it is also the one that is overlooked the most as well. I am not saying that a system cannot work if approached from the other way around, all I am saying is that any gambling or sports betting system stands a much better chance of success if a good proper solid hypothesis is formed first and foremost.

You have to know why a sports betting system could possibly work before you look at past results. If you looked at the past 1000 spins on a roulette wheel and there had been 525 red numbers to only 475 black numbers then that wouldn’t indicate that red numbers were more likely to arrive than black. It s merely nothing more than a statistical quirk and should be seen as such.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

People fail for numerous reasons and one of those is to try and shoot too high. This happens a lot in poker and if more players contented themselves by keeping to low stakes and not trying to be hotshots all the time then they would have a long and prosperous career as a poker player.

The next question is, do you need to have an encyclopaedic knowledge of sport or odds? I suppose it helps but then again it can also be a hindrance too. I have an encyclopaedic knowledge of poker but yet I don’t play that high whenever I do play. Sometimes having a lot of knowledge about something can be a terrible handicap because it leads you to go down paths that you really shouldn’t be going down.

I make money from sports betting and on sports that I have no in depth knowledge of. I understand an awful lot about most sports but there is a world of difference between understanding about a sport and understanding it on a professional level. I know an awful lot about cricket and football but yet when you compare that to the in depth technical knowledge of professional players then my knowledge is somewhat limited in these areas.

So how do I make money from betting on sports? Well there are numerous ways to get the job done and the puzzle is how to defeat the professional odds compilers who are studying these sports for a living whilst not really having the time to do so yourself.

This puzzle fascinated me for ages and I eventually found a solution. The Internet and the media and the recent huge interest in sports betting have led to professionals and ex-professionals being paid to give their opinions.

These are precisely the kind of people who you should be listening to. Some sports journalist may really know his field but in my view, he cannot know it better than a professional working on the inside. So my own method of operation is to cross reference respected professional opinion in certain ways.

I prefer to do this in some sports over others and what I am trying to establish is if certain odds with certain betting firms are out of sync with where they should be. Of course this does not always mean that the betting firm in question has made a mistake. Most of the time they are working to their own individual strategies!

It is easier for me to be able to figure out when certain prices are wrong without necessarily knowing what the correct theoretical price should be. This may sound odd but not once you understand it. The recent bout between Nikolai Valuev and David Haye is a classic case in point. The cross referencing of professional opinion had Valuev as at least an even money shot.

Most of the professional fighters were making him favourite although not a huge favourite so getting 2.15 on him was something of a good price. Despite the fact that he lost, I was still happy that I took the bet at that price. I would have taken anything 2.00 or above based on my assessment of his overall chances using my usual method of cross referencing pro opinion.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

At the end of the day, there are only three possible results in a game of football, a home win, an away win or the draw. This is not the case with horse racing and this level of added complexity also means that it is far more difficult for the odds compilers to arrive at accurate tissue prices as well. There is so much potential information that is not available to the odds compilers in horse racing that arriving at an accurate price before the event is very difficult.

This is not the case in football and even when certain players are injured or absent then the result of Premier League games especially can be barely affected. There are so many hidden facts and data in horse racing that odds compilers cannot possibly know everything. Like how a horse will look in the parade ring for example, how they will appear moving down to the post, maybe the trainer or jockey will reveal vital information in the minutes prior to the off in an interview.

All of this could take place with any horse in the entire field and when this happens then it will lead to a movement in price. En masse, the betting public are itching to bet on something in most races. Most of the money on the betting exchanges actually filters in from the bottom. Sure there may be bookmakers hedging and traders trading but that still does not ignore the fact that the vast majority of the money in horse racing comes from the masses.

Much of this money indirectly finds its way onto the exchanges and if you can keep a very close eye on events, it then becomes possible to predict where the prices of certain horses may go to in the next few minutes or even moments. Using data screens that inform us of recent and past betting activity and liquidity levels can be a great source of information.

Knowing how far a horse has contracted or drifted in price in the few hours prior to the start is pivotal knowledge in trying to ascertain just where any future movement will be. It is basically common knowledge that the largest majority of punters money will be directed at the top end of the market in any horse race.

This means the top two or three in the betting. So if you can ascertain that the market at this stage has shown little interest in the favourite or second favourite and they have been drifting steadily then this may be an indication that the third favourite could be the one to fall in price.

This is not an exact science but knowing how the majority of punters think and understanding the mass psychology is one of the keys to successful exchange trading.

This article was written by Carl “The Dean” Sampson

Thats what this day is called, atleast in Sweden. We have lots of interesting games to look forward for today. Two hot derbys, one in Manchester (City vs United) and the other one in London (Chelsea vs Arsenal). And between these games Tottenham receive Everton at White Heart Lane and finally Portsmouth will play against Blackburn at Fratton Park. I will try to give you my thoughts of these games and some statistics.

Manchester City vs Manchester United, Away win @ 1.90 in odds

This game starts the “Super Sunday” at 14.30 CET.

Manchester City won both games against their rival Manchester United last year and became the only team that beat United twice in Premier League last season. That was really surprisingly for me. Last time City won both games in Premier League against United before last season was –69 / 70.

Even though Manchester United have a few injurys they are way better then City and United have a more options to play with than their opponents. With players like Rooney, Tevez, Berbatov on top, options like Ronaldo, Nani, Carrick, Fletcher, Anderson, Giggs, Park on the midfield and solid defenders as Neville, Rafael, O’Shea, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evans, Evra. My guess is that if we compare United´s player with Manchester City´s squad maybe two or three players from Citys squad can compete for a starting position in Uniteds team.

I have to say that Manchester United should win this game even though they are playing away,  Specially since United are looking for revenge after the two defeats last year.  The odds that Bwin odds is giving for the away win is 1.90 and thats well worth a shot.

Portsmouth vs Blackburn, Draw @ 3.30 in odds

This game starts at 16:00 CET

Blackburn has played 8 games in a row without winning and their manager Paul Ince is questioned at the moment. Blackburn started this season wery well with 10 points in the first 6 games. But after that the team has collapsed totaly with 3 points in their last 8 games. Only West Brom are after Blackburn in the leaguetable and if they loose today I think this will be the last game for Ince as manager for Blackburn rovers.

“Pompay” is also a bit disappointing with their start even though they are way better then Blackburn. I thought that this was going to be a big Season for Portsmouth with lots of intetesting players in their sqaud. Just like Blackburn Portsmouth is in a bad period right now and have only won one game of their last 7 (away against Sunderland three games ago).

So this is two teams in desperate need of points and I think that this will end with a draw and 3.30 is the odds Bwin are paying for the draw here.

Tottenham Hotspurs vs FC Everton, home win @ 1.90 in odds

This game starts at 16:00 CET

Tottenham started this season worst of them all and only had two points after 8 games. That was ofcourse a big disappointment for everyone and Tottenham decided to sack their manager Juande Ramos (who came from Sevilla late in last season).

After the change of manager, when Harry Redknapp, took over that position Spurs have started to win both in the Premier League and in the Uefa cup.  They have started to climb in the table and are at the moment on the sixteenth position. Tottenham have 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games things are looking brighter.

Even their opponent Everton has 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 but the last lose against Wigan was a bit disappointing. Wigan was the better side in that game and if Everontons Golie, Tim Howard, hadn´t made a couple of magic saves Wigan could have won with more then 1-0.

Even though I respect Everton I think that Tottenham will win this game with a oddgoal in a tough game. 1.90 is the odds and thats just marginal p(l)ayable.

FC Chelsea vs FC Arsenal, home win @ 1.75 in odds

This game starts at 17:00 CET

And here is the second great big game on this “Super Sunday”.

Chelsea has alredy played against Liverpool and Manchester United here at Stamford Brigde and only taken 1 point in these two games against 2/3 biggest rivals. In my world Chelsea are better then Arsenal and home at Stamford Brigde hey normaly win majority of their games.

Things aren´t perfect in Arsenal nowdays with both injurys and other problems (Gallas). That makes the preparations for this game harder for Manager Arsene Wenger. At the same time I respect that Arsenal coult beat Man United at home.

Another thing that speaks for Chelsea is that in the last years they have had easier in their homegames with Arsenal and have 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 meatings here at Stamford Brigde. I think that the machine Chelseas will beat Arsenals beauty and I bet home-win.
All odds from Bwin sportsbetting.

Good Luck /Amrish