This year’s Premier League has been the most interesting season in several years, since all the teams still have anything to play for. No team has run away from the rest of the teams in the top of the table and all of the teams in the bottom of the table still have the chance to avoid relegation.

In these two texts I will give you my best bettingtips for the coming round.  As I do sometimes I have chosen to split the text into two different posts since there are lots of matches to go through. First I will give you all the matches with the odds and then I will give you my best bettingtips for each match in this round. I will also give you my analyzes on why I bet like I do. All the odds are picked from bwin football sportsbetting.

Here are the first three matches in this round with the odds on each of them:

Manchester United vs. Manchester City odds – home win: 1.72, draw: 3.50, away win: 4.40

Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers odds – home win: 1.22, draw: 5.50, away win: 12.00

Birmingham FC vs. Stoke City odds – home win: 2.45, draw: 3.10, away win: 2.85

And now I will give you my best tips and the odds + analyze:

Manchester United vs. Manchester City, my bettingtips: away win @ 4.40 in odds

It was long time ago that I thought that Manchester City actually could beat Manchester United in their own theater of dreams. But this time at least think that they have a reasonable chance to do it. Do you remember the last game between these two teams here at Old Trafford? Craig Bellamy scored 3 – 3 for City in the 90^th minute and everyone thought that the game was going to end with a draw. Even more when the announced four minutes where passed. But, somehow, Michael Owen managed to score 4 -3 to Manchester United when the clock stood on 95.30. You can call it furgie-time or whatever you want, but somehow this red machine manages to score these important goals.

That time the former united player and City-manager said that he understood why all the teams complained of all the advantages that Manchester United got while he was playing there but could not see from the same perspective.

What does this story actually have to do with my bet and bettingtips in this match? It’s as easy that City was almost close to win (or at least take one point) last year against Manchester United away. Now they have a stronger squad, are doing better in the league, and finally – they have a smarter manager. So I don’t think that this is a long shot. In addition to that, Manchester United lost their first league game in the last round against Wolverhampton away. I defiantly believe that Manchester city have the skills to disturb Sir Alex Ferguson’s team in this game and find the odds at 4.40 interesting on the away win in this derby.

Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton, my bettingtips: home win @ 1.22 in odds

Arsenal had the 0 – 4 lead away against Newcastle and everyone had counted in those three points for Arsenal. But in a strange way their game totally collapsed and Newcastle came closer and closer. Okay – it has to be said that Arsenal got an early red card in the beginning of the second half. And okay, Newcastle got two scores on Penalty. But it is still insane that Arsenal could “loose” two points that easy in the second half.

Because of that miss, I am pretty sure that Wolverhampton will pay the price in this game. Arsenal will win and they will do it comfortably. Even though Wolves took a strong win against Manchester United in the last round home at Mollineux, this is more or less mission impossible for them.  I actually think that 1.22 in odds on Gunners is a pretty valuable odds, even though it’s not that high. I really think that Arsenal will win this game and place a bet on them. I would also recommend you to keep an eye on the special bets (halftime/fulltime or handicap) on Arsenal.

Birmingham FC vs. Stoke City, my bettingtips draw @ 3.10 in odds

This is a pretty hard match to predict. My feeling says that Birmingham should be favorites, which they are, but the statistics says that Stoke is in a good form at the moment.  So this match can end in both directions. Or why not with a draw that both teams might be satisfied with?

I don’t find any other odds valuable to bet on, so my bettingtips on this game is a draw at 3.10 in odds.

In the next text I will give you my best bettingtips from the rest of the seven games in this round.

Blackburn Rovers vs. Newcastle United: odds – home win: 2.10, draw: 3.15, away win: 3.45

Blackpool FC vs. Aston Villa odds – home win: 3.20, draw: 3.40, away win: 2.10

Liverpool FC vs. Wigan Athletics odds – home win: 1.35, draw: 4.35, away win: 9.00

West Bromwich Albions vs. West Ham United odds – home win: 1.90, draw: 3.40, away win: 3.80

Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspurs odds – home win: 2.75, draw: 3.20, away win: 2.45

Bolton Wanderers vs. Everton FC odds – home win: 2.60, draw: 3.20, away win: 2.60

Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC odds – home win: 4.75, draw: 3.50, away win: 1.70

And here is my best bettingtips, odds and analyzes for these games:

Blackburn Rovers vs. Newcastle United, my bettingtips: draw @ 3.15 in odds

Newcastle came back from 0 – 4 to 4 – 4 in the second half, at their own home ground in their last match and that was one of the greatest pickups I have ever experienced.  Not only that they managed to score four goals and “steal” a point, they did it against one of the best teams in the league – Arsenal.   

Blackburn is normally a strong home side, and I agree with bwin odds that they are favorites in this game. But I do not agree on that Blackburn Rovers should be such big favorites as they have become. And that’s why I think that draw is a better pick to bet on. So my first bettingtips in this text is a draw in this game at 3.15 in odds.

Blackpool FC vs. Aston Villa, my bettingtips away win @ 2.10 in odds

Blackpool is this year’s big surprise in Premier League. Until just a couple of rounds ago it felt like they could beat any team in the league, but lately they have started to fall in the table. Blackpool stands with five losses in row now, and my question is how the players and managers will react on their first adversity of the year.

Aston Villa on the other hand is going stronger and stronger now and has started to climb in the league table. My feeling is that Aston Villa will win this game even though the match is on Blackpool’s home arena, and I find 2.10 in odds valuable to bet on. Aston Villa gets my bettingtips in this match.

Liverpool FC vs. Wigan Athletics, my bettingtips home win @ 1.35 in odds

Liverpool has finally found their play and is standing on four straight wins at the moment. At the moment Kenny Dalglish seems to be the perfect solution as manager at Liverpool FC. Liverpool plays with great confidence and then remember that neither Andy Carroll nor Luis Suarez has actually played that much. I think that Liverpool will be a danger opponent to play against for any team now and they showed that against Chelsea last week when they won at Stanford Bridge with 0 – 1. In this game I am pretty sure that Liverpool will take the win and 1.35 in odds is okay for me, my bettingtips goes to the home side.

West Bromwich Albions vs. West Ham United, away win @ 3.80 in odds

West Ham United is still in the bottom of the league, but lately they at least started to take some points. According to me, this is a pretty open game where West Brom has become to big favorites according to the odds. They don’t have a strong form at the moment and have dropped some places in the table compared to the beginning of Premier League. I find the odds on West Ham very interesting and chose to bet on the away win here.

Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspurs, my bettingtips away win @ 2.45 in odds

This is also a hard game to predict in advantage. And that fact is also shown in the odds on each side. Even bwin find it hard to separate the teams to much. I find Tottenham as the better team, nothing to talk about there. But the fact that Champions League is coming next week, and the fact that Sunderland are pretty hard opponents when they play home at Stadium of light makes this bet hard to make. But if I have to take a side I choose to place my bet on Tottenham anyway at 2.45 in odds.

Bolton Wanderers vs. Everton FC, bettingtips away win @ 2.60 in odds

 Well, I just spoke about though and tight matches to predict, and here we defiantly got another one. Both according to me and according to bwin since they have exact the same odds on both home win and away win. Everton is a bit stronger at the moment and Bolton has lost some easy points lately. So my bettingtips goes to Everton at 2.60 in odds.

Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC, my bettingtips away win @ 1.70 in odds

Chelsea had the chance to come closer to the top teams after Manchester United lost and Arsenal only took one point in their last game. But even Chelsea lost their game home against Liverpool and the gap to Manchester United is still 10 points. Chelsea just has to win this game, and since they are in a good shape even though they lost their last game I believe that they will win in this London-derby. My last bettingtips of this round goes to Chelsea at 1.70 in odds.

Best luck with your betting on Premier League wishes

/Amrish

Next round is on the weekend, which is normal on this time of the year when the games come a bit more often then in the beginning of the league. I will give you my best bettingtips on every game that is played in this round, which is spread over several days. First of all I am going to give you all the matches and all the odds so that you can have an overview, and then I will give you my best bettingtips per each match. I will choose to split the text into two texts. All the odds are picked from bwin football betting:

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland, odds: home win: 2.05   draw: 3.35  away win: 3.40

FC Arsenal vs. Manchester City, odds: home win 1.70 draw 3.75  away win: 4.40

Newcastle United vs. West Ham United, odds: home win: 1.80 draw: 3.60  away win: 4.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. FC Chelsea, odds: home win: 6.50 draw: 3.80   away win: 1.50

And here is my best bettingtips for these four matches:

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland, bettingtips:  draw @ 3.35 in odds

Aston Villa is my favourites in this game thanks to their home advantage, but they have not played as well as I thought that they would do, before this season started. They have already sacked their first manager (Martin O’neal) and brought in Gerard Houllier instead of him. But that haven’t either given that positive effect that I think the club was hoping to get.

Sunderland on the other hand has been playing better then I thought and they are hard to defeat. In this game I think that Aston Villa has become to big favourites with “only” 2.05 in odds, which is not value to bet on according to me. I have been thinking which best is the best in this game, draw or away win and came to the conclusion that draw probably is most value bet.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City, bettingtips: draw @ 3.75 in odds

What a great game between two teams that are challenging Manchester United in the top of the table. Both these teams have been going strongly in the last couple of matches and are fighting in the absolute top of the league. My feeling is that Arsenal is a really strong side home at Emirates stadium but that Manchester City can beat any team in the league when they are playing as best. Arsenal is defiantly a favourite to win this game thanks to their home advantage, but the odds (1.70) is way to low to bet on.

Arsenal outplayed Chelsea here at Emirates just after Christmas, but Chelsea’s form is very bad at the moment, so don’t be fooled by that win. And Manchester City has also been playing very well lately so Roberto Manchini is safe on his place as manager.

If Arsenal would pay about 1.90 – 2.00 in odds I would bet on Arsenal, but since we only get 1.70 in odds on the home win, I find 3.75 in odds on draw way more interesting, so that is my bettingtips on this match.

Newcastle United vs. West Ham United, bettingtips home win @ 1.80 in odds

West Ham is in the bottom of the league, while Newcastle is about in the middle. But since West ham sacked Gianfranco Zola and replaced him with Avram Grant they have started to take more points and at least have connection with the teams above the relegation mark.  Newcastle has also sacked their former manager, but it was quite a controversial decision from the owner, because they went well above expectations and that the old manager was also loved by both players and fans.

But that is history now, and now the players and supporters have to stand behind their team and the new manager. Newcastle has Andy Carroll on top and that is one of the best players in the league. I would guess that he is playing for the nation team very soon. He, together with the other players has a good chance to win home against West Ham and I try 1.80 in odds on the home win.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. FC Chelsea, bettingtips home win @ 6.50 in odds

This might be a really long shot, but I just cannot bet on Chelsea to the odds that they are standing at. Chelsea has only won one game in their last 8 – 9 games and are falling apart. Something is really wrong with the club, and since Abrahmovic sacked their assistant manager I can’t recognize Chelsea any more.

Wolves are struggling in the bottom of the table and even though the results haven’t gone their way, they still fight in every game. And that is a fact that I think can be the difference in this game. As I wrote, this bet is a big risk bet. But I still think that it is way more valuable to bet on Wolves in this game then on Chelsea.

The rest of the games of this round will be presented in next text.

Blackburn Rovers vs. Liverpool FC, odds: home win: 3.65 draw 3.40   away win: 1.95

Bolton Wanderers vs. Wigan Athletic, odds: home win: 1.68 draw 3.55 away win: 4.85

FC Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur, odds: home win: 2.45 draw 3.35 away win: 2.65

And the odds and my best bettingtips for these matches:

Blackburn Rovers vs. Liverpool FC, bettingtips: home win @ 3.65 in odds

Chelsea is going bad in the league, Liverpool is going worse of them all. At least compared to the pre expectations that all the experts had on the top teams. This was going to be the year when Liverpool came back to top four, and maybe even challenged for the title. Instead they are on the bottom half of the table, and I can not se any confidence in the team and players.

Yes, Liverpool wins some games here and now. Often they win home matches against poor opponents. But I can not see any stability in the play, and it almost feels like the player doesn’t believe in themselves some times.

Liverpool is a big team and will come back sooner or later. But this year is totally devastating for the team. And as long as Roy Hudgson is sitting as manager, I don’t believe that Liverpool will climb in the table, as fast as many belive.

Blackburn on the other hand is going strong. At the moment they are on the 10^th place in the league and it feels like Blackburn is going strong at the moment. Blackburn’s manager Sam Allardyce has done a great job so far with the club and I think that Blackburn can win this game as well. With the pre conditions I would say that this is a pretty even game. I would have way more even odds on these two teams then bwin has chosen to have. In other words, this is a really good bet on the home team since they pay 3.65 in odds, which I find very high.

Bolton Wanderers vs. Wigan Athletic, bettingtips draw @ 3.55 in odds

Bolton is definitely favourites in this game, both according to me and the betting company. But my job is not to find the favourites in the games, but to find the most valuable bets. And in that sentence I cannot see that the low odds at 1.68 are a bet that I can recommend even though I think that Bolton will win.

Bolton Wanderers is one of the teams (together with Blackpool) that have surprised me most in a positive way. They have been fighting for their existence in Premier League for several seasons lately, but this time they are fighting around the Europe League places. Their Swedish striker Johan Elmander has really woken up this season, after have sitting on the bench mostly with the former manager. But even though all these things speak for a win for Bolton I can not bet on them at 1.68 in odds, I just can not do it. That would mean that they have to win this game over 60 % of the times, and that is not relevant. Instead I feel that the odds on draw is a better bet here and choose draw as my bettingtips in Bolton vs. Wigan.

FC Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur, bettingtips home win @ 2.45 in odds

Tottenham is going really strong this year as well, and I have to admit that I didn’t belive that Tottenham would go this strong in the league, since they had to focus on the Champions League as well. My feeling was that they had too few top players to play with, and when the schedule became tight they would fall in the league. But that has not been the reason and I really like Tottenham this year. They play an offensive football and are fun to watch.

In this match I think that Tottenham will get a tough match. Everton is a hard opponent to play against and they have been playing very well against the top teams. They took one point against Manchester United home at Goodison, and then they beat Liverpool in the mercyside derby. After that Everton played 1 – 1 against Tottenham away, played 1 – 1 away against Chelsea and beat Manchester City away with 1 – 2 only two matches ago. So the top team that has beaten Everton so far in the league is Arsenal. And my feeling is that Everton will take at least one point here as well, probably all three.

This is a tough game and I am not sure if the home win or draw is the best bettingtips but after some thinking I choose to bet on the home win at 2.45 in odds.

Best luck with your premier League betting /wishes Amrish

Since some of the teams has lot to play for and other teams nothing you might see that some of the odds might feel a bit “strange” compared how it would be if both of the teams almost had the same motivation to fight for the win. This is an interesting fact for you people who bet on football betting to have in mind before this round.

The last group match in Champions League is always interesting from a betting perspective just because of the fact that I wrote about. So what I am going to do in these two texts is that I am going to give you bettingtips and odds from two of the groups (E + F) that is played on Wednesday. In addition, I will give you some extra, special bets, besides the 1-x-2 bettingtips. But I will start all the group analyzes with the pre conditions for each group, so that you know which teams have what to play for:

Group ET

his is interesting from the view that it is precisely three points between each team. It also means that all teams have something to play for. However, there is no question about that it is the fight for second place in the group that is most alive and interesting.

Bayern Munich leads the group with 12 points and also has a pretty strong goal difference. This means that they are already ready for the next round and are pretty sure to win the group as well. Roma is second in the group with 9 points and minus one in goal difference. Basel is third with 6 points and even goal difference and Romanian Cluj has the last position with 3 points, moreover, they have poor goal difference.

This means that Roma need to take at least one point to secure to advance from the group. Basel has a small chance to go to the knockout stage, but they must first win away against Bayern Munich away and at the same time hope that Roma do not take any point against Cluj away.

The odds, and my best bettingtips for this group (all the odds are picked from bwin football sportsbetting):

CFR Cluj vs. AS Roma, odds: home win 5.50 in odds, draw 3.40 in odds and away win 1.65 in odds

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.40 in odds

As I wrote earlier, this is a rather tricky group. But still one must be realistic in Cluj by not having too much hope to take third place, which would mean that they go trough to play in the European League in the spring. Roma should be satisfied with one point, since that would mean that they secures second place in the group and get to the playoff in the Champions League.

Roma have played quite poorly both in the league (Serie A) and in the Champions League, at least according to their ambitions before this season. They should be pleased that they have got into such an easy group as Roma still have been compared with several other teams in the Champions League. I think the odds on Roma are a little too low in this game since they only give 1.65 in the odds. It is a too low for me to give you that tips as the best bettingtips in this game. Instead, I think that 3.40 in the odds that the match ends in a draw feel much better. A draw is always tricky to bet on, but in this team, I think it feels right. So I choose draw as my bettingtips in this game at 3.40 in odds.

FC Bayern Munich vs. FC Basel, odds: home win 1.60 in odds, draw 4.00 in odds and away win 4.80 in odds

My bettingtips: FC Bayern Munich (Home team) to win @ 1.60 in odds

If this would not be that Bayern Munich had nothing to play for and Basel had much to play, the odds would “normally” be standing at approximately 1.35 on the win for Bayern Munich. Now they pay 1.60 instead and that is to high difference in odds then I had expected. Because according to me Bayern Munich is still the stronger team even if they rest some regular players in today’s match. I think 1.60 in the odds is worth playing at and it is therefore my betting tips in this match.

Basel, on the other hand, might had paid around 8 – 10 in the odds if this were a normal game. In this match to give the less then 5.00 in the odds and, as you probably understand, it also feels too low for me to think it is worth betting on even if they have much more to play for.

My odds and bettingtips for Group F will follow in the next text a bit down

Group F

In group F, Chelsea has been unbelievably great. They have won all five matches in the Champions League so far and is the only team that has maximum points in the group stage. It is also one of the reasons that make Chelsea one of the favourites to win the Champions League even though they are having an extremely bad form in the league at the moment.

Behind the sovereigns Chelsea, there are two teams fighting, Marseille and Spartak Moscow to take the second place in the group. But I do not know if it is so much fighting really, because the difference between these two teams are three points to Marseille’s advantage and twelve goals up for Marseilles. At the last place in this group, we find Zlina from Slovakia, which still have not taken a single point in the group stage in the five games that they have played.

The odds and my best bettingtips from this group (all odds is from bwin football tips:

MKS Zlina vs. Spartak Moscow, odds: home win 2.95 in odds, draw 3.35 in odds and away win 2.25 in odds

My bettingtips: MKS Zlina (Home team) to win @ 2.95 in odds

I find it difficult to decide on the outcome of this match. Zlina has been clearly the worst in this group, but now their opponents do not have much to play for the first time.

Certainly, Moscow has small chance and “something” to play for but they cannot possibly believe in themselves that they can pass Marseille when they have to bring in three points and impossible 12 goals difference to take the second place?

Zlina has 2 – 17 in goal difference so actually I should not believe that they would have a chance to win this game. But, somehow I have a feeling that they will take a win in this last game. I cannot actually explain what else then the fact that I think that they will be hungrier to win the last game and that they will have the higher motivation speaks for a home win in this game.

Zlina pays almost 3 times in odds and the Russian pays 2.25 in odds. I do not feel that 2.25 interest me in this game so I choose to put my bet on the Slovakian team. However, I would not recommend you to bet high stakes on this bettingtips since Zlina still are standing without points.

Marseille vs. Chelsea, odds: home win 2.25 in odds, draw 3.25 in odds and away win 3.20 in odds

My bettingtips: Chelsea (away team) to win @ 3.20 in odds

Chelsea is a strange side so far into this season. They have won all their five games in Champions League and done it by showing great strength. Chelsea has 14 – 3 in goal difference and that is impressing as well. At the same time, they are going really really bad in the league with only 3 points in the last 6 games. What makes those stats even stranger is that they started strong in the league as well and looked hard to beat at all. This is probably the toughest game in Champions League for the London side. Marseille is a very competent opponent and they are hard to beat at Stade Velodrome (their home ground).

But after Chelsea’s bad results in the league I am pretty sure that Carlo Angelotti (Chelsea’s manager) would like to take a win before the next league game. Even though Chelsea has won all their matches in Champions League so far they pay as high as 3.20 in odds in this game. Marseille at the same time pays very low in odds compared to their opponent. Think that Manchester United, AC Milan and several other teams pays higher odds as Champions League winners than Chelsea does.

I just have to try 3.20 in odds on Chelsea and pick the away win as my best tips here.

In addition, here is a special bet from one of these matches:

Marseille vs. Chelsea, over 2.5 goals in the match @ 2.02 in odds

Chelsea has scored 14 goals in 5 games which almost becomes an average of three made goals. Besides that, they have even let some goals in. Marseille also plays quite scoring games since they have done as much as 11 goals in five matches and let in three backwards.

Chelsea is often playing an offence football in Champions League and score a lot. I am a bit surprised that the odds on the bet that it will be under 2.5 goals (which means two goals or less totally in this game) is paying less than the over 2.5 goals bet.

According to me this is a game that I think will end over 2.5 goals more times then under. Chelsea doesn’t have any pressure on them, but still they need to start scoring for their coming league matches and for their self confidence. So I find this bettingtips very valuable to bet on.

Good luck with your Champions League betting

/Amrish

It is clear then that the top three in the market will be most heavily backed horses in the field. Remember that we are not talking about the best horse here or even the horse with the biggest chance of winning. What we are essentially talking about is the horse that the mass betting public perceives as the best value at any given point in time. There will be movement somewhere but the answer is where? You really need to know this as it will allow you to get on at the best prices.

You look at the first movement and the favourite is pushed out to 9/4 with the 25-1 shot coming in to 20/1 and the 40/1 chance into 33/1. This is not necessarily support for these horses but the bookmaker wanting to take some money on the favourite which didn’t look that way at 2/1. Then suddenly the 4/1 chance comes into 7/2 and the second favourite also comes in from 3/1 into 11/4.

Then the favourite goes out again to 5/2 while the second favourite comes in again to 5/2 and now we have joint favourites. The money is clearly going onto the second favourite when the betting opened and the market on the whole appears not to be supporting the opening favourite. But if you keep two very important rules at hand when you back horses then you will be fine. The first rule is that the market and betting public as a whole is wrong. If they were right all the time then they would all make money betting on horses now wouldn’t they?

The second rule is that everything in a horse race has a chance to win, even the 100/1 shots. Think about why a horse is 100/1 for a minute. It is that price because of the existence of a couple of well fancied horses in that race. But what if something happens to those horses during the course of the race? You see what I am getting at here and so the lesson here is clear and it is that every horse has a chance otherwise it wouldn’t be allowed to compete. But feeling the flow of the market and which horses are the best value can help you pick better bets. The mugs back the horse that is falling in price in the belief that the betting public “know something”. The smarter punters back a horse at 3/1 that only a few minutes earlier was 2/1.

I once saw some reliable date regarding online poker sites which stated that the average player made $150/month for the site in rake. So if a site had 10,000 players then that is $1.5 million per month. So just where are the betting firms weak? Well they do have numerous weaknesses but one thing that the betting firms from twenty years ago rarely did and that was to offer their punters or prospective punters free money with free bets.

This is common now but it does highlight one very important thing and this is that it is possible to milk these free bets for all that you possibly can and that is a good betting tip. For example one betting firm may give you a free $50 if you place $50 in action. Now strictly speaking then this isn’t free at all because you have to buy in for $50 to get this money. On the surface this seems like risk but even if you lost the entire $50 then you will still break even. The betting firm is obviously hoping that you will hang around and place far more action than that.

I once went to a corporate race event that was hosted by a company that my partner did business with. We were both given £400 in free tokens to bet with and the winnings were paid out in cash. These tokens could only be placed on the Tote prices and not with the on course bookmakers. My partner gave them to me because she knew that I understood gambling very well. You could not cash these in and they had to be used in the races. I waited until race number four and placed the entire £400 on the first and second favourite so that it returned the same amount of £400.

These two horses were vastly superior to the field and in my mind the chances of any other horse winning was remote. The favourite duly won and I collected £400 despite the fact that my partner chastised me for placing the entire sum on one race. The lesson here is clear in so much that you can protect your initial $50 by reducing your risk so that you walk away with the $50 free money a very high percentage of the time. But what you have to do is then walk away and cash in once you get this money.

Take football as a betting example, it has been calculated that there is only about seventy minutes of actual playing time in a football match. So in no way is this time period even remotely adequate for superiority to show itself. This is the same in other sports as well where short time frames dictate the outcome. Another factor behind why favourites lose is that they do not always perform to their optimal level for whatever reason.

Only yesterday did I witness a huge odds on favourite get beaten when Arsenal were beaten at home by newly promoted West Brom which confounded all of the tipsters and sport betting tips. After the match, the Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger admitted that not one single player in his team had performed to their usual level. This is a huge factor in why favourites fail to win or get beaten. So short term luck and underperforming are the two single biggest factors in why favourites get beaten.

If you can look at sporting events in this way then you will have taken a serious step ahead of the rest of the competition with regards to sports betting. In fact many professional sports bettors ply their trade by looking to oppose very short priced favourites either in running or before kick off in the belief that sporting events are far more unpredictable than you think. So how do you know when a short priced favourite is likely to fail?

Well that is the $64,000 question but you can use some common sense to tell you when odds are too short for value to be obtained in backing them. My own individual philosophy is to oppose short priced favourites rather than to back them. Usually the prices have been artificially contracted anyway and this is especially the case with short priced favourites that have been hyped and this can often lead to a contraction in price beyond what the correct theoretical price should be.

But if you think about this for a minute then if sporting events were predictable then there would be no markets available and the betting firms would not be offering markets on them. So the mere fact that the betting firms are quoting odds then there must be some unpredictability by sheer definition. You will be taking a huge step ahead of the rest of the punters and people who back on sports by looking at sports and sports betting in this way.

I will start to give you all my best bettingtips in the game between Argentina vs Spain and then follow that up with my best tips from Paraguay vs Spain. I have choose to pick the odds from bwin bet on world cup and one of the reasons that I do that is because they have the biggest offer in different odds and betting opportunities of all the betting sites.

There are over 300 different betting opportunities at bwin, which can be compared with most of the sites that offers about 100 different bets per match.

Paraguay vs. Spain, odds: Paraguay to win, odds: 8.00, draw odds: 4.50, Spain to win, odds: 1.40

My bettingtips:

Paraguay vs. Spain – Spain to win @ 1.40

Paraguay has never been in a quarterfinal in the World cup’s history before so this is a very big game for them. But the fact is that Spain never have been further then a quarterfinal before either, which can be hard to think compared to the team that Spain has, and have got for a long time.

I think that the fact that Spain did so well in the European Championship two years ago (when they won the Gold medal) has helped them a lot in this World cup.

It started as it often do for Spain in World cup, they lost against Switzerland with 1 – 0. When that happened, I am pretty sure that most of the Spaniards thought something like “Not this time as well”. Because Spain was, the biggest favourites to win the World cup according to the odds before the championship started and that even thought they have never been in a semi-final before.

Nevertheless, after their loss against Switzerland they came back strongly and won against both Honduras and Chile (2 – 0 and 2 – 1) which took them trough to the second round. In the first match of the second round they played against their neighbours Portugal in a great game where Portugal seemed to bee the strongest team but where Spain made a substitution and that changed the game. Spain won with 1 – 0 after that David Villa (who else?) scored his fourth goal of the tournament.

Paraguay has been doing very well and has only let one goal in so far. They started with 1 – 1 against the former trophy holders Italy and after that they won against Slovakia with 2 – 0. In their last group match they played 0 – 0 against New Zeeland, but in that game they where not forced to win. In the second round they was headed against Japan and won after penalties (0 – 0 after ordinary time).

So none of these teams as impressed that much so far, but still one of the teams will go to the semi-finals. My feeling is that Spain is growing as they are going further and that they have good opportunities to win this game. I do not think that it will be an easy game but I still think that Spain is too good for Paraguay. Actually I would say that the odds on a Spanish win is a bit too low to bet on if it would had been a group-game or friendly, but now when it is a quarterfinal I have a feeling that the Spanish world-class-players will improve their game and win.

Paraguay vs. Spain, correct result: 0 – 1 @ 5.20 in odds

It’s not often that I place a bettingtips on correct result, but this time I have a strong feeling that this game can end 1 – 0 for Spain. I had the same feeling in their game against Portugal, but this time I am going to place a bet on that as well.

As I wrote above, these two teams have not been scoring too many goals forward. In addition, Paraguay has shown a strong defensively strength and I am pretty sure that they will try to hold up 0 – 0 as long as they can. Almost all of the Spanish players are playing in Spanish league for some of the top clubs, and if they come up to a normal standard, at least one of these players should be able to score eventually. Spain has David Villa, Fernando Torres, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Fernando Ilorente, Andres Iniesta and the question is for how long time Paraguay can stand up with their defensive line.

I choose to bet the result 0 – 1 to Spain since I think this will be a tight game in the beginning and that Spain will score in the second half. And when/if they do, they are one of the best nations in the world to pass the ball. If you choose to bet on 0 – 1 result for Spain and that is the standing late in the game I can even recommend you to keep an eye on the livebetting. It might being worth to hedge that bet if you have a high stake since the odds is over 5.00.

My best bettingtips from Argentina vs Germany follows in the next text