Many people will no doubt look at teams like CSKA Moscow, Bordeaux and Lyon and think that they are merely making up the numbers……but are they? At the end of the day, we are looking at a cup competition after all so every team has a chance. Arsenal have a chance to overcome the heartache of 2006 and get revenge on Barcelona.

They will have their work cut-out because Barcelona are a better team than 2006 while Arsenal don’t seem as strong to me. But over two legs then anything can happen. The worrying thing for Arsenal is that they play a style that suits Barcelona. Also Arsenal have a strong tendency to buckle against the top sides which has been proven time and time again against Chelsea and Manchester United and in Europe over the past two seasons.

So I expect Arsenal to get beaten against Barcelona even though as an Englishman, I hope that I am wrong. Manchester United against Bayern Munich will be a wonderfully balanced tie. I give Manchester United the edge simply because of Wayne Rooney. Bayern struggled in the group and almost didn’t qualify as both they and Juventus suffered at the hands of Bordeaux.

Barcelona do not seem to have the same intimidation factor in La Liga as they do in Europe which is why they are in serious danger of not winning the title. They are currently neck and neck with Real Madrid and equal on points so it will be interesting to see how that transpires. I did say at the start of the season that I didn’t feel that any English club was strong enough to win the trophy this season.

With Liverpool going out in the group stages and Chelsea in the last 16 then that prediction is looking strong. Bayern Munich certainly have enough in their locker to beat Manchester United and go all the way to the final and their coach Louis Van Gaal is a master tactician.

Looking at how the draw has transpired then I do predict a Manchester United and Barcelona repeat final but then again, that is the final that all of Europe are predicting. Can Inter Milan upset Barcelona……yes! Even though they have let a huge lead slip in Serie A this year in the race for the title, Jose Mourinho will be plotting his game plan to beat Barcelona as soon as the CSKA Moscow tie is over.

My predictions are Manchester United against Bordeaux and Barcelona against Inter Milan in the last four but I don’t say that with too much conviction.

For the lastest Champions League betting then go to bwin.com

Let me explain, let us say for example that you have just backed the 1.25 favourite in the 2.30 at Windsor and it has duly repaid you by romping to victory and your total win is £150 on that particular wager plus your stake back. But you had £122 left in your account after you made the bet on the favourite at Windsor. After seeing your horse win, the system takes several minutes to process the result and the money to go into your account.

Because of this, that now means that you cannot back anything with any more than the £122 that you currently have in your account. So if you want to back a mount in the imminent 2.35 at Southwell then your limit is £122 until your funds from the 2.30 at Windsor actually clear. It also means that you cannot LAY anything as well that would have a total liability of more than £122 until that money goes into your account.

Let me give you another example, let us say that you have exactly £1000 in your account and you think that England at 8-1 have little or no chance of winning the 2010 Football World Cup. The decimal online sports betting odds system that betting exchanges use would quote this as 9.0 meaning that you would return 9 x whatever your bet was.

So an 8-1 shot when you are BACKING your fancy would in fact be risking £100 to win £800 but you would collect £900 because of the fact that you would also be returning your original stake as well, meaning that you would be collecting 9 x whatever your bet was. But when you LAY a selection then you are in fact acting as the bookmaker so your total possible win is £100 if England do in fact fail to win the World Cup. But you have acted as bookmaker and have given odds of 9.0 (8-1) so if England do go on to lift the trophy then your loss will be £800 and not £100 as many new exchange punters think.

This means that as soon as you LAY England at 8-1 or 9.0 then you are tying up not £100 but £800 which means that you will only have £200 out of the £1000 that you originally had left inside your account as the prospect of you losing the bet is factored in by the system and your money will not be returned until England are eliminated from the competition and your total possible loss (£800) is returned plus your £100 winnings thus making your new balance £1100 (less commission) presuming of course that you have not placed any more action in the meantime.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

But the operating instructions are very extensive indeed and also far more up to date so I would literally advise any new betting exchange user to read them and to really get used to the system before you jump in and take the plunge.

What confuses many new betting exchange users is the sheer number of options that they face whenever they place a bet. If we take a look at a typical betting exchange screen for a Champions League match between Arsenal and Juventus would show us something very similar to this.

BET LAY

Arsenal

2.2        2.3       2.4         2.6           2.7          2.8
3240   2170      630       1720        450        8230

Juventus

2.8        2.9       3.0         3.1           3.2           3.3
160      3450     5675      1230       3812      4560

Draw

3.0        3.1        3.2         3.4           3.5           3.6
2130    1120      310         590        6720       3915

This shows us the current prices not just to back Arsenal to win but to also lay Arsenal to lose. We can also see the price for Juventus to win and also to lose and on top of that we also have the price of the draw and the lay price of the draw. So here we have six separate individual bets on one single football match.

The best price at this particular moment in time for Arsenal to win the game is 2.4. If you thought that the gunners were unlikely to win this game then you basically have one of two options. You could BACK Juventus at sports betting odds of 3.0 AND BACK the draw at 3.2 or you could simply LAY Arsenal to lose at 2.6. It needs to be pointed out here that the prices that are underlined represent the best available prices to back and lay at this particular moment in time and the figures underneath those prices are the amounts that are available to back and lay.

Obviously whether you want to back Arsenal, Juventus or the draw then you want to do so at the best available prices and the best available prices at this particular moment in time are Arsenal at 2.4, Juventus at 3.0 and the Draw at 3.2.

But the pace of exchange betting is so frantic and especially as an event nears kick off that the odds and amounts that you see on the screen are really only a small fraction of time as money is being pumped into the market every second and prices are being taken and asked for every single second as well.

One of the first things that confuses novice exchange users is the difference between the back and lay sides and I will set about explaining that here. If you want to back Arsenal to win for £20 in the above example at 2.4 then you can as there is a total of £630 waiting to be matched at that price. But for every backer then there must be a layer and that £630 at 2.4 represents the total money that has been placed at that price by all of the people who are looking to LAY Arsenal at 2.4.

Likewise if you wanted to LAY Arsenal at 2.6, this means that if you lay them to lose at that price then you are entering into a bet with someone or some people who want to BACK Arsenal at that price. This might seem terribly confusing at first glance but it is really rather simple once you get the hang of it. On the screen then those prices and amounts are situated in boxes and to place a bet then you simply click on the box in question and follow the simple steps.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

People fail for numerous reasons and one of those is to try and shoot too high. This happens a lot in poker and if more players contented themselves by keeping to low stakes and not trying to be hotshots all the time then they would have a long and prosperous career as a poker player.

The next question is, do you need to have an encyclopaedic knowledge of sport or odds? I suppose it helps but then again it can also be a hindrance too. I have an encyclopaedic knowledge of poker but yet I don’t play that high whenever I do play. Sometimes having a lot of knowledge about something can be a terrible handicap because it leads you to go down paths that you really shouldn’t be going down.

I make money from sports betting and on sports that I have no in depth knowledge of. I understand an awful lot about most sports but there is a world of difference between understanding about a sport and understanding it on a professional level. I know an awful lot about cricket and football but yet when you compare that to the in depth technical knowledge of professional players then my knowledge is somewhat limited in these areas.

So how do I make money from betting on sports? Well there are numerous ways to get the job done and the puzzle is how to defeat the professional odds compilers who are studying these sports for a living whilst not really having the time to do so yourself.

This puzzle fascinated me for ages and I eventually found a solution. The Internet and the media and the recent huge interest in sports betting have led to professionals and ex-professionals being paid to give their opinions.

These are precisely the kind of people who you should be listening to. Some sports journalist may really know his field but in my view, he cannot know it better than a professional working on the inside. So my own method of operation is to cross reference respected professional opinion in certain ways.

I prefer to do this in some sports over others and what I am trying to establish is if certain odds with certain betting firms are out of sync with where they should be. Of course this does not always mean that the betting firm in question has made a mistake. Most of the time they are working to their own individual strategies!

It is easier for me to be able to figure out when certain prices are wrong without necessarily knowing what the correct theoretical price should be. This may sound odd but not once you understand it. The recent bout between Nikolai Valuev and David Haye is a classic case in point. The cross referencing of professional opinion had Valuev as at least an even money shot.

Most of the professional fighters were making him favourite although not a huge favourite so getting 2.15 on him was something of a good price. Despite the fact that he lost, I was still happy that I took the bet at that price. I would have taken anything 2.00 or above based on my assessment of his overall chances using my usual method of cross referencing pro opinion.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

I am really looking forward to Chelsea vs Liverpool on Sunday, but even Monday’s game between Aston Villa vs Manchester City feels interesting.

Three out of four English teams that played Champions league this week won their matches (Arsenal home against Olympiakos 2 – 0, Chelsea away against Apoel 0 – 1, and Manchester United vs Wolfsburg 2 – 1).

The only team that lost was Liverpool. They went to Italy and Florens to play against Fiorentina and were totally out played. Fiorentina won a well deserved win with 2 – 0.

I will list all the matches that is played this round in Premier League with the odds from bwin football betting and then give you my best pick for the round:

Bolton 3.15 draw 3.25 Tottenham Hotspur 2.10

Burnley 2.20 draw 3.20 Birmingham City 3.00

Hull City 2.40 draw 3.15 Wigan Athletic 2.70

Wolverhampton 2.00 draw 3.30 Portsmouth 3.35

Manchester Utd 1.20 draw 5.50 Sunderland 11.50

FC Arsenal 1.25 draw 5.05 Blackburn Rovers 9.50

FC Everton 1.65 draw 3.40 Stoke City 4.90

West Ham 2.20 draw 3.20 Fulham 3.00

FC Chelsea 1.85 draw 3.20 FC Liverpool 4.00

Aston Villa 2.25 draw 3.30 Manchester City 2.80

My pick of the week is a multi-play with two matches:

Manchester United vs Sunderland, home win + Arsenal vs Blackburn, home win total odds: 1.50

I know that this isn’t an all too brave bet, but those who have followed my bets for a longer time knows that I usually don’t bet on the biggest favourites. But this time I really think that both these teams will take pretty easy wins and that’s why I think that 50 % profit is a pretty god payback.

Here’s my thought about these two games and why I pick them as my bets of this round:

Manchester United vs Sunderland

Manchester United has only lost one game so far and that lost came against Burnley, very surprisingly. Beside that they have won all their six matches. It’s very rare that Manchester united drops points against opponents like Sunderland home at Old Trafford.

Sunderland impressed on me with their 5 – 2 win against Wolverhampton last week, but I saw the match and it was way too big compared to how they played. Sunderland got two penalties and at least the first was a wrong decision from the ref. At the same time Wolves deserved go get one penalty that they never got

Man Utd played in Champions league on Wednesday and that might be the only reason why to not bet on them in this match, but they have lots of players to rotate on and I am pretty sure that Sir Alex Ferguson al ready has counted in that in his tactics.

I just can’t se how Manchester united can draw or loose this game and that’s why I pick this as my first pick out of two. With the prerequisite that we have they win at least 5 out of 6 matches like this.

Arsenal – Blackburn

Even Arsenal played Champions league this week. But that’s no excuse to not to win this match against Blackburn Rovers at home.

Blackburn won against Aston Villa last week after a penalty in the 90^th minute. But I am not so impressed with their performance this year either. Blackburn has lost some important key-players this summer and I think that they will fight in the bottom half of the table.

I saw Arsenals match against Olympiakos on Thursdays Champions league round and they really impressed on me. The score was only written 2 – 0, but seen to the chances that they created It would had been more like 6 or 7 – 0.

They totally mashed down the Greek side and Nikopolidis, goalkeeper in Olympiakos, probably played one of his best games ever. It was play against their goal through out the whole game and why it took over 70 min until Arsenal got their first goal is a riddle for me.

In the beginning of this season Arsenal had lots of injuries but now more and more players have come back and on the attacking side they are almost complete now. Arshavin is playing brilliant football at the moment and with players like Van Persie, Fabregas and Eduardo available I can’t se how Blackburn can bring any points home from this match. Even Rosicky is back as winger and now its only Walcott left.

Arsenal has soo many players that can make the difference in a game like this and if they produce half as many chances as they did against Olympiakos, I am pretty sure they will win.

And with that fact I bet Arsenal + Manchester United to a total odds of 1.50.

Best regards

/Amrish