Since some of the teams has lot to play for and other teams nothing you might see that some of the odds might feel a bit “strange” compared how it would be if both of the teams almost had the same motivation to fight for the win. This is an interesting fact for you people who bet on football betting to have in mind before this round.

The last group match in Champions League is always interesting from a betting perspective just because of the fact that I wrote about. So what I am going to do in these two texts is that I am going to give you bettingtips and odds from two of the groups (E + F) that is played on Wednesday. In addition, I will give you some extra, special bets, besides the 1-x-2 bettingtips. But I will start all the group analyzes with the pre conditions for each group, so that you know which teams have what to play for:

Group ET

his is interesting from the view that it is precisely three points between each team. It also means that all teams have something to play for. However, there is no question about that it is the fight for second place in the group that is most alive and interesting.

Bayern Munich leads the group with 12 points and also has a pretty strong goal difference. This means that they are already ready for the next round and are pretty sure to win the group as well. Roma is second in the group with 9 points and minus one in goal difference. Basel is third with 6 points and even goal difference and Romanian Cluj has the last position with 3 points, moreover, they have poor goal difference.

This means that Roma need to take at least one point to secure to advance from the group. Basel has a small chance to go to the knockout stage, but they must first win away against Bayern Munich away and at the same time hope that Roma do not take any point against Cluj away.

The odds, and my best bettingtips for this group (all the odds are picked from bwin football sportsbetting):

CFR Cluj vs. AS Roma, odds: home win 5.50 in odds, draw 3.40 in odds and away win 1.65 in odds

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.40 in odds

As I wrote earlier, this is a rather tricky group. But still one must be realistic in Cluj by not having too much hope to take third place, which would mean that they go trough to play in the European League in the spring. Roma should be satisfied with one point, since that would mean that they secures second place in the group and get to the playoff in the Champions League.

Roma have played quite poorly both in the league (Serie A) and in the Champions League, at least according to their ambitions before this season. They should be pleased that they have got into such an easy group as Roma still have been compared with several other teams in the Champions League. I think the odds on Roma are a little too low in this game since they only give 1.65 in the odds. It is a too low for me to give you that tips as the best bettingtips in this game. Instead, I think that 3.40 in the odds that the match ends in a draw feel much better. A draw is always tricky to bet on, but in this team, I think it feels right. So I choose draw as my bettingtips in this game at 3.40 in odds.

FC Bayern Munich vs. FC Basel, odds: home win 1.60 in odds, draw 4.00 in odds and away win 4.80 in odds

My bettingtips: FC Bayern Munich (Home team) to win @ 1.60 in odds

If this would not be that Bayern Munich had nothing to play for and Basel had much to play, the odds would “normally” be standing at approximately 1.35 on the win for Bayern Munich. Now they pay 1.60 instead and that is to high difference in odds then I had expected. Because according to me Bayern Munich is still the stronger team even if they rest some regular players in today’s match. I think 1.60 in the odds is worth playing at and it is therefore my betting tips in this match.

Basel, on the other hand, might had paid around 8 – 10 in the odds if this were a normal game. In this match to give the less then 5.00 in the odds and, as you probably understand, it also feels too low for me to think it is worth betting on even if they have much more to play for.

My odds and bettingtips for Group F will follow in the next text a bit down

In these two texts I will give you my best picks and odds for these. I have chosen to separate Tuesday’s matches in this first article and then continue with Wednesday’s matches in next part.

One thing that you should keep in mind before betting is to watch the standings for each group and find out witch teams still have something to play for and witch teams already have secured their places. It can be a big deferens in their motivation and staring line-ups according to how important this game is. Here is a short explanation what deferens the different positions means:

Each group winner goes to the knock out round, of course, but with the added benefit that they will play the second game at home. All runner-ups in the group go to the knockout stage as well and will be drawn against the group winners. All third finishers in the groups will continue playing in the slightly less prestigious European League. And all the team that ends last in the groups have to end their European season for this year.

The pre conditions in group A – D is that Bordeaux already have won group A while Juventus and B München is fighting for the second place. Maccabi Haifa is still standing without one single point and will definitely finish last. 

In group B Manchester United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moskva is fighting for a place in the knock out stage while Besiktas has a small chance to finish third if they beat CSKA in the last game with 1 – 0 or two goals up. 

Group C is a battle between AC Milan and Marseille for the second place. Real Madrid has already won the group and FC Zürich will finish last.

And in group D Chelsea and Porto have secured the first and second place. Atletico Madrid and Apoel are struggling to finish third.

Here are all the matches and odds that will be played on Tuesday:

 All the odds is from bwin-champions-league

Juventus 2.30 draw 3.45 FC Bayern München 2.80 

Maccabi Haifa 2.40 draw 3.30 Girondins de Bordeaudraw 2.75

Besiktas 2.75 draw 3.40 CSKA Moskva 2.35

VfL Wolfsburg 2.45 draw 3.35 Manchester United 2.65  

FC Zürich 6.75 draw 4.50 AC Milan 1.40 

Olympique de Marseille 2.95 draw 3.45 Real Madrid 2.20 

Atlético Madrid 1.75  draw 3.40 FC Porto 4.60

FC Chelsea 1.35 draw 4.40 APOEL 7.50 

And here comes my best bet for this day 

FC Zürich 6.75 draw 4.50 AC Milan 1.40 – home win @ 1.40 

Ac Milan has everything in their own hand in this last round. They are one point ahead of third placed Marseille from France and that means that if Ac Milan wins this game they are trough from this group. 

At the same time FC Zürich are five points behind Marseille, so they don’t have anything but their honour to play for.

The Italian teams, and especially Milan, have this strange ability to somehow always go trough from these tough situations that they put them selves in. And I am pretty sure that they will to the same this time as well. 

It’s remarkable that Milan only loss in this group came against Zürich at home in the second round. But that was probably a combination of underestimation and that they had some kind of over reliance of themselves. Now when the match means so much all their experience players will take a step forward and win this game for them. So even though the odds seams a bit low to be an away game in Champions League, I am pretty sure that AC Milan will go win and go trough. And if they win this game it doesn’t matter how the second match in this group between Marseille vs Real Madrid ends. 

Some other interesting odds that might be valuable:

Juventus 2.30 draw 3.45 FC Bayern München 2.80 – Draw @3.45 

This is a very interesting game in group A. Bayern München seamed to be knocked out before last round, but since Bordeaux won in their home game against Juventus the German side still have the chance to go trough. 

Juventus is one point ahead of B München before this sixth round and that means that Bayern München has to win this game to go trough, if they don’t Juventus will follow Bordeaux to the last 16. And just as I mentioned above – the Italian sides are experts on playing on result and just go trough. Even Inter Milan is in the same position as Juventus and Milan in this sixth round and I would not be surprised if all of them goes trough. 

The forth Italian team in this tournament, Fiorentina, is already in the knock out stage and it means that Italy can be the only country with four teams in the knock out stage since Liverpool and Atletico Madrid for sure will miss to qualify. 

 I think that the draw in this game in interesting, and as always the draw pays pretty well.

In the next text, below here, I continue with my best picks and analysis from group F – H.

Here are all the matches and odds for group E – H. I will give you all the pre conditions for these groups as well as I did in the text above.

FC Liverpool 2.10 draw 3.30 Fiorentina 3.30

Olympique Lyon 1.16 draw 7.00 VSC Debreceni 13.00

FC Sevilla 1.38 draw 4.35 Glasgow Rangers 7.85

VfB Stuttgart 1.60 draw 3.75 Unirea Urziceni 5.25

Olympiakos Pireus 2.10 draw 3.00 FC Arsenal 3.65

Standard Liege 1.90 draw 3.40 AZ Alkmaar3.85

Dynamo Kiev 5.75 draw 3.55 FC Barcelona 1.60

Inter Milan 1.45 draw 4.00 Rubin Kazan 7.00

Here are all you need to know before you put your bets for these matches regarding the standings in the groups.

In group E it’s already decided that Fiorentina and Lyon will go trough. The only thing that isn’t sure yet is witch of these teams will win this group. Lyon has a big advantage since they have their last match against Debreceni at home, and Debreceni is still standing without any points. Liverpool will be third in this grope no matter how the last round ends.

Group F is more open. This is the only group in of all groups in Champions League where all the teams still have the chance to go trough to last 16. Barcelona is lead with 8 points, followed by Inter Milan and Rubin Kazan on 6 points each. At the moment Dynamo Kiev is last in this group, but if they manage to win with 2 – 0 or with 3 goals or more they will pass the former Champions in the table and go trough. So this is really an exiting group.

In group G Sevilla is trough for sure. Behind them Unirea and Stuttgart is fighting for the second place. Unirea, from Romania, holds that position at the moment. But both these teams will meat each other in the last round and that match will be played in Germany. Glasgow Rangers will end last in this group.

And finally Group H where Arsenal already have won the group. Olympiakos and Standard Liege are fighting for the second place. Standard goes trough if Olympiakos looses against Arsenal home and if Standard wins their last game against AZ at the same time. But if AZ wins the last game they will pass Standard and go to the European League.

Here is my best bet for Wednesday’s matches:

Standard Liege 1.90 draw 3.40 AZ Alkmaar3.85 – Home win @ 1.85

I am surprised over how bad AZ has been in the Champions League, and at the same time I am surprised over that Standard has been way better then I thought they would be.

For example Standard Liege lead with 2 – 0 against Arsenal in the first round, and even though Arsenal played with lots of youngsters I think that they would win easier. Finally they won with 2 – 3 as well, but as I said – Standard impressed on me.

Standard was even close to bring home one point from their away game against Olympiakos in Greece. It stood 1 – 1 late in the game and Olympiakos where a bit lucky since the match winning goal came on the third and final stoppage minute.

At the same time I had more expectations on AZ then they have proved. AZ from Alkmaar has three draws in their five games but all of them have come in their home games. So they are standing on two looses away and now I think that their third away loss is on its way.

And even the motivation is on Standards side, because to play for a place in Champions League’s last 16 and European league’s last 32 is a big difference. So I pick Standard as my best pick of these eight matches and it feels good.

Another potential bet on Wednesday:

Inter Milan 1.45 draw 4.00 Rubin Kazan 7.00 – Home win @ 1.45

Even though all the teams have the opportunity to go though from this group and all of the teams risk to not go trough I am pretty sure that Barcelona will be one of two teams that goes trough.

Even though they loose with the odd goal in their match against D Kiev in the last round they will go trough. But what that would mean for this game is that this can’t end draw. If Barcelona take at least one point in the last game against Dynamo Kiev, witch is mostly possible, one of these teams will go trough.

If Rubin Kazan wins this match they are trough and if Inter Milan wins they are trough. The interesting thing is what will happen if this match ends with a draw. Because if it ends 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 Inter Milan will go through, if it ends 2 – 2 or more Rubin Kazan will go trough. BUT do not forget that if this match ends with a draw and Dynamo Kiev win their last game against Barcelona both of them will go trough and both Inter Milan and Rubin Kazan is out.

And I am pretty sure that Inter won’t take that risk to be saved by Barcelona. Inter is the better team and should win this game since they have to home advantage. And as I mentioned when I wrote about AC Milan and Juventus, Italian teams have a great ability to go trough from these kinds of situations.

All the odds are picked from bwin.com football sportsbetting

Good luck with your sportsbetting

/Amrish

The upcoming transfer window offers teams the opportunities to refresh their personnel and jolt their league position. It has an impact on the football betting odds offered and therefore presents an opportunity to football betting fans to get some value as the equilibrium of the season so far is disrupted. The top team’s activity in the transfer window is important to these changes so let us look at what they may do in the transfer window to be ready to capture potential value as it appears.

Chelsea

With their upcoming transfer ban being decided after the window expect Roman Abramovich to spend big in the transfer window. Chelsea’s squad are ageing and Ancelotti will know that three or four young signings with the ability to make an immediate impact both now and over the next two seasons are vital to Chelsea’s success beyond this season. Expect furious activity this January from Chelsea.

Most of the transfers will probably be younger players with European reputations however there has been rumours of a £45 million Franck Ribery bid with Manchester City also said to be interested.

Man Utd

Alex Ferguson has reassured Nani that he has a future at Old Trafford and looks like he will await the development of Danny Wellbeck, Federico Macheda and Johnny Evans to replace the ageing Gary Neville, Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. With Wayne Rooney spearheading the team, Ferguson looks to have purchased all the prospects he wishes to replace senior squad members.

There is not normally any activity during the January transfer window from Old Trafford. They will need to perform well if they are to catch Chelsea after Christmas. Emerging into top players are Evra, Anderson and Carrick which reduce the need for new signings. Owen Hargreaves return from long term injury will be as good as a new signing for them.

Arsenal

As always the club stresses to the press that there is money available for Arsene Wenger. True to form, he rarely spends it preferring business stability to irresponsible signings. Arsenal are in transition and I expect more integration of players like Wilshere, Ramsey, Randall and Gibbs. The injury to Gibbs and Van Persie may force transfer activity, but I think Wenger would prefer to try out Carlos Vela as a replacement to the injured Dutchman. In terms of football betting, analyse the team as you did in the first half of the season as there will be no drastic changes, other than the impact of their current injuries.

Liverpool

The Merseyside team managed a good 2-0 away to Everton in the derby but still remain prone to random defeats. Because they have been eliminated from the Champions League that revenue is cut, meaning they probably cannot spend even if they want to. Football betting fans may find value in their opponents in the second half of the season. Aquilani, their £20 million summer signing should be in the team from now on and he will be like a January signing, but will this be enough to save them? Their financial situation is publicly unstable and they could end up as another “Newcastle Utd and Leeds Utd” footballing tragedy of mismanaged finances.

Manchester City

Seven draws in a row and a lacklustre Robinho has shown the City fans that big spending is not the only ingredient to success. Mark Hughes position is under threat as the big name players need a Capello-type manager to lead them it seems. If he survives the chequebook could be used as a weapon again in January. City failed to sign Kaka and other big names and the biggest names are the players they crave. They may be the only team to rival Chelsea in spending, but look like they cannot rival them on the pitch. Football betting fans could see Manchester City look value if they strengthen in the right areas.

By Malcolm Clarke