The overwhelming number of people simply do not have the time or the knowledge to be able to design their own sports betting systems. The next generation of punters realise that the older systems are no longer working or are too well circulated to be of much use. So they set out to design their own systems to try and get ahead of the crowd.

Whether it is systems for horse racing or football betting or whatever, a common tactic is to design a system after first looking at past results. This is a very dangerous thing to do and this is so dangerous that it has a name and that is “back fitting”. This is the process of designing a system after looking at past results.

There are numerous flaws with doing this and the first one and also the most obvious is that the reason for the results can easily be an illusion as seeing patterns that are otherwise not there is a common failing with system designers. The problem with doing it back to front is that there is then a lack of proper hypothesis. Having a proper system that is grounded in solid principles is the key foundation and something that needs to be in place before you check the results and not after.

Some of the best sports betting systems that I have ever designed have been based around solid principles. Once you have the reasons that underpin the sports betting system, then and only then do you check the previous results and data to see if there is any validity to your hypothesis. Most of the time the results and data will not validate your opinions but in this instance, it hasn’t cost you anything as you simply do not use the system.

But in the instance where the data backs up your opinions then not only do you have supportive results but these results are now grounded in a sound and solid theory and the reasons behind why you have devised this particular sports betting system are valid.

I believe that this process is an important one in the design of most gambling and sports betting systems. But it is also the one that is overlooked the most as well. I am not saying that a system cannot work if approached from the other way around, all I am saying is that any gambling or sports betting system stands a much better chance of success if a good proper solid hypothesis is formed first and foremost.

You have to know why a sports betting system could possibly work before you look at past results. If you looked at the past 1000 spins on a roulette wheel and there had been 525 red numbers to only 475 black numbers then that wouldn’t indicate that red numbers were more likely to arrive than black. It s merely nothing more than a statistical quirk and should be seen as such.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

It will be interesting to see how United cope without Ronaldo and Tevez and if Valencia and Owen will settle in quickly enough to adequately fill the gap. Manchester City have been splashing the cash again after spending a reputed £25 million on Emmanuel Adebayor from Arsenal.

Along with Gareth Barry, Roque Santa Cruz and Carlos Tevez, they now boast one of the best strike forces in the league. They still chase John Terry of course as rumours fly that the Chelsea captain is becoming increasingly frustrated at how Chelsea have reacted to the interest from City.

Talk of a £300,000 a week salary has been rife but Terry seems to be angered by the stance of Chelsea in that they appear to be automatically taking for granted the fact that Terry will not leave. Close friends of Terry appear to be saying that it is in the balance whether he leaves or not. If he does go then this could prove pivotal in Chelsea’s chances of wrestling the title away from Manchester United next season.

In past seasons, Chelsea have never looked the same defensively whenever Terry has been absent and it will be a massive blow for new manager Carlo Ancelotti if he is to start the new season without his talismanic captain.

As always there will be massive gambling interest in the league title and not just in England but all over the world. At this time the Premier League is the most bet-on football league anywhere in the world. The sheer global appeal of the Premier League and the fact that there is so much known about the teams by the gamblers means that they have far more confidence when it comes to betting and risking money.

In fact many shrewd gamblers look to make a quick killing on the Premier League by assessing the fixture list first. One of the drawbacks to placing a bet on the winner of the league at the start of the season is in the length of time that it will take for you to get your winnings. Long term markets tend to put off an awful lot of pro gamblers for this very reason because it is tying up money for too long…..money that could easily be used down other avenues.

However there is potential profit in laying one of the big four at the start of the season and this can especially be the case if they are starting with what are relatively difficult fixtures. It isn’t difficult to envisage Liverpool for example dropping a few points if their first five matches are against Tottenham, Everton, Aston Villa, Fulham and Chelsea. If Liverpool only have say five points after five matches then their price for the title will drift accordingly.

Also top sides can easily have a poor opening month, one only has to look at Manchester United last season who got off to a poor start by their standards for proof of that. It is the average performances over the space of a season that dictates who the top sides are at the end and that fails to show itself during the opening matches with great regularity. Laying a short priced top four side at the start of the season could lead to guaranteed profit after just a few matches as you can back them at a higher price, thus locking in the profit.